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#1823 From: Paul J Allen <pauljallen@...>
Date: Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:33 am
Subject: Ecology wants pictures: Upcoming Winter High Tides: A Preview of Future Sea Level Rise
pjallen111
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Send Email Send Email
 
Posted by Paul Allen

Begin forwarded message:

From: "North, Teri (ECY)" <teno461@...>
Date: December 30, 2009 4:51:21 PM PST
Subject: Climate Updates
Reply-To: "North, Teri (ECY)" <teno461@...>

Upcoming Winter High Tides: A Preview of Future Sea Level Rise
 
Seasonal high tides occurring throughout the region over the next week and again in early February will provide a preview of what the state might expect to see on a more regular basis as a result of rising sea levels.
 
Members of the public who happen to photograph these high tide events are invited to submit their images to the Washington State Department of Ecology. The agency is interested in using these images to help document the coastal impacts our state is likely to face with increasing frequency as sea levels continue to rise.
 
Images can be submitted via email to ‘ecologyoutreach@...’ – along with the date, time, and detailed location information. Please provide contact information if you'd like us to send you a release form for future publication of your photos.  For more information, visit the Washington Department of Ecology blog:
 

______________________________________________________________

Washington Department of Ecology Climate Change Web site:  http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/

To unsubscribe to Ecology's Climate Change Update, point your browser to http://listserv.wa.gov/archives/wa-climate-change.html or send a

"SIGNOFF WA-CLIMATE-CHANGE@..." command to LISTSERV@...

 


#1822 From: Rachel Laderman <rachel.laderman@...>
Date: Wed Dec 30, 2009 9:40 pm
Subject: power of household actions - study and articles
radelado
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1 - Study on reducing US carbon emissions through household actions: http://tinyurl.com/yfvke2p
 
2 - Articles by David Gershon (author of "Low Carbon Diet") called "Hope for a Climate Change Solution in the Wake of Copenhagen - If Governments Can't, People Can" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-gershon/hope-for-a-climate-change_b_401298.html
 

#1821 From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:57 am
Subject: IMAGINE OLYMPIA: CLIMATE 2030, 1/11/2010, 7:00 pm
OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   OlyClimateAction Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   IMAGINE OLYMPIA: CLIMATE 2030
 
Date:   Monday January 11, 2010
Time:   7:00 pm - 9:00 pm
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 13 days, 2 minutes.
Location:   Olympia Center
Street:   222 Columbia St. NW
City State Zip:   Downtown Olympia
Phone:   Barb: 878-9901 or barb@...
Notes:   SEA LEVEL RISE: WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?
Andy Haub, City of Olympia, Public Utilities

An overview of recently completed work on the various scenarios
and potential impacts of sea level rise on downtown Olympia, as well as the projected effects of climate disruption throughout the state.


PUTTING the CLIMATE in the C0MP PLAN
Keith Staley, City of Olympia, Planning Department

An opportunity to have a meaningful and informed dialogue with the City and discuss the changes needed in the Comprehensive Plan to address the anticipated impacts of climate disruption.


The Comprehensive Plan will be the vehicle that ultimately determines what gets attention and what doesn't over the next 20 years. If we take the time to identify climate change as being significant, then it will get addressed through the comp plan. If we don’t . . .

Sponsors:
OLYMPIA CLIMATE ACTION
City of Olympia: IMAGINE OLYMPIA
http://www.olympiawa.gov/imagine-olympia.aspx

Bring your own mug to enjoy a cup of coffee or tea along with other refreshments.

PLEASE NOTE: Olympia Climate Action is meeting at the Olympia Center for the January meeting ONLY, and will return to the MIXX 96 meeting room in February. OlyCA meets the second Monday of the month.
 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#1820 From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com
Date: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
Subject: High Tide Watch, 1/4/2010, 8:15 am
OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com
Send Email Send Email
 
Reminder from:   OlyClimateAction Yahoo! Group
 
Title:   High Tide Watch
 
Date:   Monday January 4, 2010
Time:   8:15 am - 8:45 am
Next reminder:   The next reminder for this event will be sent in 6 days, 2 minutes.
Location:   "The Kiss" at Percival Landing
Street:   4th Avenue & Water Street
City State Zip:   Downtown Olympia
Phone:   Barb: 878-9901
Notes:   Experience OUR HIGHEST TIDE of the year!

Bundle up and join members of the Olympia City Council and Thurston County Commission as we contemplate a normal high tide and speculate on sea level rise.
 
Copyright © 2009  Yahoo! Inc. All Rights Reserved | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

#1819 From: samgarst <samgarst@...>
Date: Sun Dec 27, 2009 7:56 pm
Subject: Re: High Tide Watch, Mon Jan 4, 8:15 am, Percival Landing [1 Attachment]
samgarst@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Can you take my office address off your announcement list.  I get too many emails at my office.  Please send only items I need to respond to to my office.
 
Sam_Garst@...
 

Sam Garst
SamGarst@...
l www.thegarsts.com
6015 Marantha Lane SW; Olympia, WA 98512
360-491-4969: Home
l 360-570-3997: Work l 360-480-9964: Cell


Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear.
-- William E. Gladstone, British Prime Minister, 1809-1898

Liberalism is, I think, resurgent. One reason is that more and more people are so painfully aware of the alternative.
-- John Kenneth Galbraith, U.S. economist

 
 
In a message dated 12/26/09 16:26:04 Pacific Standard Time, barb@... writes:
Please post the attached flyer and forward this announcement to those who may be interested in attending this event.
 

Experience our Highest Tide of the Year
at "The Kiss" on Percival Landing

Monday, January 4, 2010
8:15 am - 8:45 am
 
Bundle up and join members of the Olympia City Council and Thurston County Commission as we contemplate a normal high tide and speculate on sea level rise. A tide of 17+ feet is expected to occur at 8:37 am.  Attendees are invited for breakfast afterwards at a local restaurant.

Sponsored by Olympia Climate Action. 
For more information, contact Barb directly at 878-9901 or barb@...
 

#1818 From: Jim Lazar Listserve Address <jlazar@...>
Date: Sun Dec 27, 2009 3:48 pm
Subject: Re: [Envirotalk] Dec. 28 is deadline for action: Use Clean Air Act to regulate coal-fired power plants
jimlazar
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
The petition is nice, but direct comment to EPA is better.

A discussion of the proposed rule, plus complete instructions on how to comment directly to EPA on this are available at:
http://www.epa.gov/NSR/fs20090930action.html

peggy bruton wrote:
 

Dear Friend,

Earlier this month, President Obama's Environmental Protection Agency
issued a formal declaration that global warming pollution is a threat to
public health and welfare -- something that the rest of us have known
for
a long, long time.

The way is cleared for the Clean Air Act to become an crucial weapon in
our fight to stop climate change. The Obama administration is now in a
position to regulate global warming pollution without having to wait for
Congress (which has been lured into writing weak climate policies by
industry lobbyists with deep pockets).

I just signed submitted a public comment to the EPA in support of a
strong
rule to regulate greenhouse gases from coal-fired plants and other big
polluters under the Clean Air Act. I hope you will, too. The deadline is
Monday, Dec. 28. Please have a look and take action.

http://act.credoaction.com/campaign/stationary_sources/?
r_by=7165-489277-U8U.nqx&rc=mailto1


#1817 From: "Barb Scavezze" <barb@...>
Date: Sun Dec 27, 2009 12:25 am
Subject: High Tide Watch, Mon Jan 4, 8:15 am, Percival Landing
barb@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Please post the attached flyer and forward this announcement to those who may be interested in attending this event.
 

Experience our Highest Tide of the Year
at "The Kiss" on Percival Landing

Monday, January 4, 2010
8:15 am - 8:45 am
 
Bundle up and join members of the Olympia City Council and Thurston County Commission as we contemplate a normal high tide and speculate on sea level rise. A tide of 17+ feet is expected to occur at 8:37 am.  Attendees are invited for breakfast afterwards at a local restaurant.

Sponsored by Olympia Climate Action. 
For more information, contact Barb directly at 878-9901 or barb@...

1 of 1 File(s)


#1816 From: Beth Doglio <beth@...>
Date: Thu Dec 24, 2009 10:13 pm
Subject: RE: Guardian article on Copenhagen
beth@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Mike - Yes.  We will be working both the Oregon and the Washington state sessions.  We have quite an agenda in both states.  I'm not involved as I'm focused at the federal level, but i will be sure to keep this group informed of the climate agenda from the CS perspective.
 
Happy Holidays to all!
 
Beth
 
 

From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com [OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mike McCormick [mike.mccormick@...]
Sent: Thursday, December 24, 2009 1:16 PM
To: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [OlyClimateAction] Guardian article on Copenhagen

 

Beth,


I trust Climate Solutions has their eyes on Washington state and the legislature too.  This will be a tough session to get much done but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be playing in that policy arena in meaningful ways too.

Best, Mike

On Dec 23, 2009, at 1:09 PM, Beth Doglio wrote:

 

This is well worth the read.  I also got a personal account from a Senate staffer who relayed that Obama was  negotiating at an extremely rare level of detail for a head of state and his view was that were it not for Obama coming in on the last day and personally negotiating the lame deal we eneded up with it would have been even lamer.
 
Clearly our work is far from over and keeping the pressure on Obama to keep the pressure on the Senate is key to anything happening next year.  And, we cannot galvanize next year and pass any comprehensive climate policy unless WE are as united as possible.  We can't wait any longer - we need a cap on emissions next year. 
 
Climate Solutions will be continuing the campaign in the Northwest states and I hope that you will engage as much as possible.  Cantwell has some great ideas and gets this stuff like few other Senators - but she needs to be pushed to engage in the moving vehicle to make it better.  She's off on her own tangent that isn't particularly helpful to getting a bill next year.  Murray needs to push within the leadership structure to make this happen - and push hard - with the help of constituents letting her know that they expect her to push.
 
Happy Holidays.

From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com [OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim Lazar Listserve Address [jlazar@jimlazar.com]
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 10:04 AM
To: Olympia Climate Action
Subject: [OlyClimateAction] Guardian article on Copenhagen

 

How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall account of how talks failed

<A-woman-listens-to-Barack-002.jpg>

A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at the Copenhagen climate change conference on 18 December. Photograph: Axel Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.

All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries".

Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes, and then left its proxies to savage it in public.

Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations, whose head of state was also present for most of the time.

What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors".

Shifting the blame

To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.

China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.

Strong position

So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.

Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate change talks with a strong mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the service of planetary suicide – and leftish campaigners and commentators are hoist with their own petard.

With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.

China's game

All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings, "not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to be more ambitious in a few years' time".

This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.

Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.






#1815 From: Mike McCormick <mike.mccormick@...>
Date: Thu Dec 24, 2009 9:16 pm
Subject: Re: Guardian article on Copenhagen
mjmoly
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Beth,

I trust Climate Solutions has their eyes on Washington state and the legislature too.  This will be a tough session to get much done but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be playing in that policy arena in meaningful ways too.

Best, Mike

On Dec 23, 2009, at 1:09 PM, Beth Doglio wrote:

 

This is well worth the read.  I also got a personal account from a Senate staffer who relayed that Obama was  negotiating at an extremely rare level of detail for a head of state and his view was that were it not for Obama coming in on the last day and personally negotiating the lame deal we eneded up with it would have been even lamer.
 
Clearly our work is far from over and keeping the pressure on Obama to keep the pressure on the Senate is key to anything happening next year.  And, we cannot galvanize next year and pass any comprehensive climate policy unless WE are as united as possible.  We can't wait any longer - we need a cap on emissions next year. 
 
Climate Solutions will be continuing the campaign in the Northwest states and I hope that you will engage as much as possible.  Cantwell has some great ideas and gets this stuff like few other Senators - but she needs to be pushed to engage in the moving vehicle to make it better.  She's off on her own tangent that isn't particularly helpful to getting a bill next year.  Murray needs to push within the leadership structure to make this happen - and push hard - with the help of constituents letting her know that they expect her to push.
 
Happy Holidays.

From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com [OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim Lazar Listserve Address [jlazar@jimlazar.com]
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 10:04 AM
To: Olympia Climate Action
Subject: [OlyClimateAction] Guardian article on Copenhagen

 

How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall account of how talks failed

<A-woman-listens-to-Barack-002.jpg>

A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at the Copenhagen climate change conference on 18 December. Photograph: Axel Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.

All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries".

Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes, and then left its proxies to savage it in public.

Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations, whose head of state was also present for most of the time.

What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors".

Shifting the blame

To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.

China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.

Strong position

So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.

Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate change talks with a strong mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the service of planetary suicide – and leftish campaigners and commentators are hoist with their own petard.

With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.

China's game

All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings, "not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to be more ambitious in a few years' time".

This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.

Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.






#1814 From: samgarst <samgarst@...>
Date: Thu Dec 24, 2009 2:27 am
Subject: Fwd: Earth Policy Release - Ice Melting Faster Everywhere
samgarst@...
Send Email Send Email
 
 

 
Very scary, we all argue about the best approach to the problem, but we need to move forward no matter how slowly and unsatisfyingly.
Sam Garst
 

ICE MELTING FASTER EVERYWHERE

http://www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/indicators/C50

By Alexandra Giese

From the Arctic sea ice to the Antarctic interior and the mountainous peaks of Peru, Alaska, and Tibet, ice is melting at an alarming rate. The accelerating loss of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers is one of the most powerful and striking indicators of a warming climate.

The most notable ice loss in recent years has been the shrinking of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. From the beginning of the satellite record in 1979 through 1996, ice area decreased at a steady rate of 3 percent per decade in response to rising temperature. In the following decade, ice area decreased by 11 percent, reaching a dramatic minimum in 2007. In September of that year, sea ice occupied only 3.6 million square kilometers, an area 27 percent smaller than the previous record low (in 2005) and 38 percent smaller than the 1979–2007 average. Summer sea ice coverage has increased slightly in the last two years, but it is still far below the long-term average.


(See larger image of map.)


Declines in ice thickness and volume are just as dramatic. The combination of these trends has led to a decrease in the amount of ice that persists in the Arctic through multiple seasons. Multiyear ice is more stable and less susceptible to break-up than the thin, short-lived seasonal ice that forms each winter. Between 1987 and 2007, the amount of ice at least five years old has plummeted from 57 to just 7 percent. Drastic changes in sea ice cover have led scientists from the University of Washington and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to predict that the summer of 2037 could see the first ice-free Arctic in a million years. Other scientists have predicted a largely ice-free summertime Arctic as early as 2015.

Declining sea ice is a self-reinforcing trend because of what is known as the albedo effect. Ice reflects up to 70 percent of the sunlight that reaches it, while ocean water reflects only 6 percent and absorbs the rest as heat. This means that as soon as a small amount of sea ice disappears and exposes the underlying ocean water, the system starts absorbing more energy, which leads to further ice melt. Dangers associated with this runaway warming scenario include rapid destruction of diverse ecosystems that support polar bears, seals, and walruses, among other organisms; a thawing of the Arctic tundra, which can release copious amounts of the greenhouse gas methane; and increased warming of nearby Greenland.

Satellite data indicate that the Greenland ice sheet has been experiencing accelerated melt, particularly over the past several decades. In fact, Greenland’s average annual melt between 2002 and 2005 was triple that of the 1997-2003 period, and the summer melt area on the ice sheet has increased 30 percent since 1979. In recent years, changes in ice dynamics associated with higher temperatures have caused glaciers to flow faster, leading to additional ice loss. Melt water lubricates the base of gla ciers that carry ice from the interior to the sea, causing their movement to accelerate (for example, the speed of Greenland’s largest outlet glacier doubled in just five years). Surface lakes propagate fractures through the ice sheet as they drain, further lubricating the base and weakening the ice sheet with a network of cracks. And glaciers have been calving into the ocean with enough force to be detected on seismometers all over the world. The frequency of these “glacial earthquakes†has increased in recent years; in 2005, for example, there were over twice as many quakes as in any year before 2002. All told, Greenland lost 1,500 gigatons of ice between 2000 and 2008, more water than is used in U.S. homes and industry over a six-year period.

In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica, too, is showing signs of a warming climate. Annual ice mass loss for the entire continent more than doubled between the periods 2002–06 and 2006–09. In March 2009, a 400-square-kilometer piece of ice broke off of the Wilkins ice shelf, the tenth ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula in recent times. The most notable break-up was that of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002, which covered some 3,000 square kilometers, roughly the size of Rhode Island. The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) lost 59 percent more ice in 2006 than it did in 1996. A fast-flowing drainage glacier of WAIS, the Pine Island glacier, experienced a quadrupling in its average rate of volume loss between 1995 and 2006. Previously well-established as stable or even gaining mass, the East Antarctic ice sheet may in fact be shrinking. A late 2009 Nature Geoscience study points toward a net melting of the ice sheet since 2006. This new discovery adds to the ever-growing fears of ice sheet collapse and sea level rise. With increased melting, scientists say sea level could rise as much as 2 meters by the end of this century.

Mountain glaciers are much smaller in comparison to the polar ice sheets and, thus, do not pose nearly as great a threat t o world sea levels. But due to their proximity and importance to human settlements, their melting is of grave and immediate concern. Melting mountain glaciers can create hazards like rockfalls, avalanches, and outburst floods from glacial lakes; they also have significant impacts on freshwater supplies. Worldwide, the average annual rate of mountain glacier melt was over twice as great between 1996 and 2005 as during the previous decade. The World Glacier Monitoring Service named 2007, the most recent year for which data are available, the eighteenth consecutive year of retreat for the 30 reference glaciers measured since 1976.

The glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau make up the largest body of ice outside the poles and provide water to Asia’s major river systems, which supply water to over 2 billion people. This water is vital for drinking and for irrigating the wheat and rice crops in China and India, the largest in the world. In recent years, Himalayan glaciers have been retreating at rates ranging from 10 to 60 meters per year. As the glaciers disappear, the dry-season flows of river systems that depend on them may decrease by up to 70 percent, making them seasonal rivers. River systems at risk include the Yangtze, Yellow, Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra.

The Andes, home to 90 percent of the world’s tropical glaciers, are also experiencing rapid melt and a shrinking water supply: between the early 1970s and 2006, Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers lost about one third of their surface area. In Peru, glacier and snow melt provides 80 percent of the fresh water, used not only for drinking but also for hydroelectricity, which supplies more than 80 percent of the country’s power. In neighboring Bolivia, the La Paz governor is already anticipating severe water shortages and considering a program for migration out of the capital city. The 18,000-year-old Chacaltaya glacier, home of the country’s only ski resort, disappeared in 2009.

The glaciers of Tanzania’s Mount Kil imanjaro, long cultural and spiritual icons, decreased in area by 84 percent between 1912 and 2007 and continue to melt rapidly. In Alaska, 98 percent of glaciers are currently thinning or retreating. And accelerated melting puts Montana’s Glacier National Park on track to lose its namesakes by 2020. (See map and additional examples at www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/indicators/C50/ice_melting_2009.)

These current ice loss trends are alarming, but perhaps more disconcerting is the fact that ice melt is occurring even faster than scientific models have predicted, emphasizing the need to cut emissions before the world sees ice sheet collapse, catastrophic inundation of low-lying coastal areas, and widespread water and food shortages. After all, in the words of Stockholm University professor Johan Rockström, “We don’t know how to refreeze the Greenland ice sheet.â€

 

#1813 From: Jim Lazar Listserve Address <jlazar@...>
Date: Thu Dec 24, 2009 12:57 am
Subject: Re: Guardian article on Copenhagen blaming China
jimlazar
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Sorry, Gar.  Dogmatism will get us nowhere.  We're been high-centered between dogmatic environmentalists, who will not agree to reasonable compromise, and dogmatic industrialists who will not agree to reasonable compromise.  And we've made little progress in terms of a hard cap on emissions.  Many of us decided it's time to get moving. 

The US-CAP proposal (more-or-less now embodied in the Waxman-Markey bill that passed the House) is an example of pragmatic environmentalists working with pragmatic industrialists.  The authors include NRDC, Nature Conservancy, Dow Chemical, and Pacific Gas and Electric, among others.   It's far from perfect.  It's not my first choice. But it's a solid start in the right general direction.  I'm no fan of cap-and-trade, as embodied in Waxman-Markey; I view it as the Enron solution to global warming.  But it's still better than a stalemate.  www.us-cap.org

The key features of Waxman-Markey are a cap, flexible compliance mechanisms, and gradually shrinking allowance allocation to industries, electric consumers, and gas consumers, to avoid severe dislocation in the short run. 

Some people oppose free allocation based on historical emissions, arguing this is a "subsidy."   

To me the cap is what matters; who gets the allowances has nothing whatsoever to do with achieving emission reductions, it is strictly an equity issue. 

If you want to "punish" the people of Yakima, because they happen to be served by a utility that invested in coal, and "reward" the people of Centralia, because they happen to be served by a utility that has a contract with BPA for federal hydropower and nuclear power, I suppose you're entitled to that opinion.  That opinion is embodied in proposals to require that all allowances be purchased at auction, and none be reserved for consumers without paying extra for them.  Under the auction approach, the people of Walla Walla get huge electric bill increases; the people of Centralia do not.   Nobody in Yakima "voted" for coal, and nobody in Centralia voted against coal.  It's an accident of history.   In fact, I suspect many people in Centralia support coal (since a couple hundred of their neighbors work at the Centralia coal plant).  There's not a coal plant within 100 miles of Yakima.   And the electric rates in Yakima are a lot higher than those in Centralia to start with, so you put Yakima's economy at a further disadvantage. 

I don't see any environmental benefit to punishing innocent consumers who had no choice of what their utility did (and, in the case of Pacific Power in Yakima, their newest coal plant was built in about 1985).   I think it's fair to "punish" people served by utilities that invested in coal after Kyoto, in 1997; by then the utility, utility regulators, environmental regulators, and legislatures should have known better.  But not those who did so in 1985, when many of us were vigorously opposing their principal alternative (nuclear). 

Is Waxman-Markey enough?  No. 

Is it a move in the right direction?  Yes

Can we improve on it over time?  Yes.  But only if we change the baseline, by passing a first attempt.

Should we enact it, and then begin moving forward?  I think so. 

Figure it out.  There are not the votes to implement my first choice or Gar's first choice.  We can either support a stalemate, or we can compromise. 

I believe that it is better to light one candle, than to curse the darkness. 


Gar Lipow wrote:
Blaming China is a long standing practice among rich nations. Yeah China got what it wanted. But so did the U.S.. The Obama admin has been pretty consistently insistent that it would support no cuts larger than 4% compared to 1990 (17% compared 2005). It has been very consistent that it had no interest in phasing out coal. There is a reason Lynas was let into the confernce and Monbiot among those excluded. Beth Doglio wrote:
This is well worth the read. I also got a personal account from a Senate staffer who relayed that Obama was negotiating at an extremely rare level of detail for a head of state and his view was that were it not for Obama coming in on the last day and personally negotiating the lame deal we eneded up with it would have been even lamer.
Clearly our work is far from over and keeping the pressure on Obama to keep the pressure on the Senate is key to anything happening next year. And, we cannot galvanize next year and pass any comprehensive climate policy unless WE are as united as possible. We can't wait any longer - we need a cap on emissions next year.
Climate Solutions will be continuing the campaign in the Northwest states and I hope that you will engage as much as possible. Cantwell has some great ideas and gets this stuff like few other Senators - but she needs to be pushed to engage in the moving vehicle to make it better. She's off on her own tangent that isn't particularly helpful to getting a bill next year. Murray needs to push within the leadership structure to make this happen - and push hard - with the help of constituents letting her know that they expect her to push.
Happy Holidays.
________________________________
From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com [OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim Lazar Listserve Address [jlazar@...]
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 10:04 AM
To: Olympia Climate Action
Subject: [OlyClimateAction] Guardian article on Copenhagen
[cid:part1.01050106.07070101@...] <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/copenhagen>
How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room
As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall account of how talks failed
*
* Mark Lynas<http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/marklynas>
* guardian.co.uk<http://www.guardian.co.uk>, Tuesday 22 December 2009 19.54 GMT
[cid:part2.09070200.03000305@...]
A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at the Copenhagen climate change conference on 18 December. Photograph: Axel Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/china> wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.
China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.
All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries".
Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes, and then left its proxies to savage it in public.
Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations, whose head of state was also present for most of the time.
What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors".
Shifting the blame
To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.
China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.
Strong position
So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.
Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate change<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change> talks with a strong mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the service of planetary suicide – and leftish cam
paigners and commentators are hoist with their own petard.
With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.
China's game
All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings, "not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to be more ambitious in a few years' time".
This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.
Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.
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#1812 From: Gar Lipow <garlpublic@...>
Date: Thu Dec 24, 2009 12:06 am
Subject: Re: Guardian article on Copenhagen blaming China
garlpublic@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Blaming China is a long standing practice among rich nations. Yeah China got
what it wanted. But so did the U.S.. The Obama admin has been pretty
consistently insistent that it would support no cuts larger than 4% compared to
1990 (17% compared 2005). It has been very consistent that it had no interest in
phasing out coal. There is a reason Lynas was let into the confernce and Monbiot
among those excluded.

Beth Doglio wrote:
> This is well worth the read.  I also got a personal account from a Senate
staffer who relayed that Obama was  negotiating at an extremely rare level of
detail for a head of state and his view was that were it not for Obama coming in
on the last day and personally negotiating the lame deal we eneded up with it
would have been even lamer.
>
> Clearly our work is far from over and keeping the pressure on Obama to keep
the pressure on the Senate is key to anything happening next year.  And, we
cannot galvanize next year and pass any comprehensive climate policy unless WE
are as united as possible.  We can't wait any longer - we need a cap on
emissions next year.
>
> Climate Solutions will be continuing the campaign in the Northwest states and
I hope that you will engage as much as possible.  Cantwell has some great ideas
and gets this stuff like few other Senators - but she needs to be pushed to
engage in the moving vehicle to make it better.  She's off on her own tangent
that isn't particularly helpful to getting a bill next year.  Murray needs to
push within the leadership structure to make this happen - and push hard - with
the help of constituents letting her know that they expect her to push.
>
> Happy Holidays.
> ________________________________
> From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com [OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com] On
Behalf Of Jim Lazar Listserve Address [jlazar@...]
> Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 10:04 AM
> To: Olympia Climate Action
> Subject: [OlyClimateAction] Guardian article on Copenhagen
>
>
>
> [cid:part1.01050106.07070101@...]
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/copenhagen>
> How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room
>
> As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall
account of how talks failed
>
>  *
>     *   Mark Lynas<http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/marklynas>
>     *   guardian.co.uk<http://www.guardian.co.uk>, Tuesday 22 December 2009
19.54 GMT
>
> [cid:part2.09070200.03000305@...]
>
> A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at the Copenhagen climate change
conference on 18 December. Photograph: Axel Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
>
> Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what
actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual
recriminations. The truth is this: China<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/china>
wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an
awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I
know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.
>
> China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and
then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the
world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society
movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the
inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder
their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have
bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.
>
> All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George
Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming
Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese
delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the
Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a
suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance
of a few countries".
>
> Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries
that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open
sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes,
and then left its proxies to savage it in public.
>
> Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from
two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several
hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles
Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon,
secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the
heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations,
whose head of state was also present for most of the time.
>
> What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not
deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official
in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic
snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times
during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait
around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his
"superiors".
>
> Shifting the blame
>
> To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it
was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets,
previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we
even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's
prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's
representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should
rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said
no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded
the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get
the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.
>
> China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers
that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain
temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that
emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50%
cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of
India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese
not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had
environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.
>
> Strong position
>
> So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely
strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country
foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the
Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also
presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many
others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal
perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing
countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17%
below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.
>
> Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could
deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative
senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese
industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that
Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate
change<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change> talks with a strong
mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete
lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign
groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that
is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at
co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the
service of planetary suicide – and leftish campaigners and commentators are
hoist with their own petard.
>
> With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle
as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the
small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising
seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to
save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded
Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but
surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.
>
> China's game
>
> All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the
words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings,
"not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country
to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences
for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate
regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to
be more ambitious in a few years' time".
>
> This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in
both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global
political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it
is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence
was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every
decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter
this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.
>
> Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a
profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet
its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not
only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's
freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long
time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave
of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and
drained away.
>
>
>
>

#1811 From: Beth Doglio <beth@...>
Date: Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:09 pm
Subject: RE: Guardian article on Copenhagen
beth@...
Send Email Send Email
 
This is well worth the read.  I also got a personal account from a Senate staffer who relayed that Obama was  negotiating at an extremely rare level of detail for a head of state and his view was that were it not for Obama coming in on the last day and personally negotiating the lame deal we eneded up with it would have been even lamer.
 
Clearly our work is far from over and keeping the pressure on Obama to keep the pressure on the Senate is key to anything happening next year.  And, we cannot galvanize next year and pass any comprehensive climate policy unless WE are as united as possible.  We can't wait any longer - we need a cap on emissions next year. 
 
Climate Solutions will be continuing the campaign in the Northwest states and I hope that you will engage as much as possible.  Cantwell has some great ideas and gets this stuff like few other Senators - but she needs to be pushed to engage in the moving vehicle to make it better.  She's off on her own tangent that isn't particularly helpful to getting a bill next year.  Murray needs to push within the leadership structure to make this happen - and push hard - with the help of constituents letting her know that they expect her to push.
 
Happy Holidays.

From: OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com [OlyClimateAction@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim Lazar Listserve Address [jlazar@...]
Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 10:04 AM
To: Olympia Climate Action
Subject: [OlyClimateAction] Guardian article on Copenhagen

 

How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall account of how talks failed

A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at Copenhagen climate change conference 18 December 2009

A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at the Copenhagen climate change conference on 18 December. Photograph: Axel Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.

All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries".

Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes, and then left its proxies to savage it in public.

Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations, whose head of state was also present for most of the time.

What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors".

Shifting the blame

To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.

China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.

Strong position

So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.

Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate change talks with a strong mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the service of planetary suicide – and leftish campaigners and commentators are hoist with their own petard.

With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.

China's game

All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings, "not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to be more ambitious in a few years' time".

This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.

Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.



#1810 From: Jim Lazar Listserve Address <jlazar@...>
Date: Wed Dec 23, 2009 6:04 pm
Subject: Guardian article on Copenhagen
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How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall account of how talks failed

A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at Copenhagen climate change conference 18 December 2009

A woman listens to Barack Obama's speech at the Copenhagen climate change conference on 18 December. Photograph: Axel Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.

All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries".

Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes, and then left its proxies to savage it in public.

Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations, whose head of state was also present for most of the time.

What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors".

Shifting the blame

To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.

China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.

Strong position

So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.

Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate change talks with a strong mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the service of planetary suicide – and leftish campaigners and commentators are hoist with their own petard.

With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.

China's game

All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings, "not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to be more ambitious in a few years' time".

This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.

Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.



#1809 From: "Barb Scavezze" <barb@...>
Date: Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:22 pm
Subject: Imagine Olympia: Climate 2030, Jan 11, 7-9 pm, Olympia Center: SEA LEVEL RISE and PUTTING the CLIMATE in the C0MP PLAN
barb@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Please post the attached flyer and forward this announcement to those who may be interested in attending this event.
 
 
IMAGINE OLYMPIA: CLIMATE 2030
Monday, January 11, 7-9 pm
The Olympia Center
222 Columbia St. NW
 
SEA LEVEL RISE: What Can We Expect?

Andy Haub, City of Olympia, Public Utilities
An overview of recently completed work on the various scenarios and potential impacts of sea level rise on downtown Olympia, as well as the projected effects of climate disruption throughout the state.

PUTTING the CLIMATE in the C0MP PLAN

Keith Staley, City of Olympia, Planning Department
An opportunity to have a meaningful and informed dialogue with the City and discuss the changes needed in the Comprehensive Plan to address the anticipated impacts of climate disruption.

The Comprehensive Plan will be the vehicle that ultimately determines what gets attention and what doesn't over the next 20 years. If we take the time to identify climate change as being significant, then it will get addressed through the comp plan. If we don’t . . .

Sponsors:
OLYM PIA CLIMATE ACTION www.groups.yahoo.com/group/OlyClimateAction  
City of Olympia: IMAGINE OLYMPIA http://www.olympiawa.gov/imagine-olympia.aspx

Bring your own mug to enjoy a cup of coffee or tea along with other refreshments.  For more info: Barb at 360-878-9901 or barb@...

PLEASE NOTE: Olympia Climate Action is meeting at the Olympia Center for the January meeting only, and will return to the MIXX 96 meeting room in February.  OlyCA meets the second Monday of every month.


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#1808 From: "Karin Kraft" <kraftkf@...>
Date: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:50 pm
Subject: James Hansen on Copenhagen
kraftkf@...
Send Email Send Email
 

http://www.commondreams.org/video/2009/12/22-0

 

 


#1807 From: Jim Lazar Listserve Address <jlazar@...>
Date: Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:05 pm
Subject: Dr. Suess Does Copenshagen
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_RlKxz_ymQ

--
Jim Lazar, Consulting Economist
Microdesign Northwest
1063 Capitol Way S. #202
Olympia, WA   98501
360-786-1822

Direct email:  jim@...
Listserves:     jlazar@...

#1806 From: samgarst <samgarst@...>
Date: Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:07 am
Subject: The climate solution starts locally that leads to global action
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For those who despair at the weak conclusion of the Copenhagen conference and blame out current President, Lester Brown has a more positive spin. 

I would add that the answer is the individual and local actions, we take as individuals living in individual homes, and driving our individual vehicles or not, and investing in locally developed projects.  nothing happens until we all take the actions to cut out CO2 output.  It is not the international community, federal government ... it is us to lead by example.

So, for those who criticize Pres. Obama, I ask you to footnote in your message that you have reached or are on track to an 80% reduction in your personal carbon foot print. 

Sam Garst
 
Note: Electric bill $20/month.  down Payment on a Chevy Volt

Stabilizing Climate: Beyond International Agreements

http://www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2009/pb4ch0_pref

Lester R. Brown

Note: the following was written in July 2009, before the Copenhagen climate change conference.

From my pre-Copenhagen vantage point, internationally negotiated climate agreements are fast becoming obsolete for two reasons. First, since no government wants to concede too much compared with other governments, the negotiated goals for cutting carbon emissions will almost certainly be minimalist, not remotely approaching the bold cuts that are needed.

And second, since it takes years to negotiate and ratify these agreements, we may simply run out of time. This is not to say that we should not participate in the negotiations and work hard to get the best possible result. But we should not rely on these agreements to save civilization.

Some of the most impressive climate stabilization advances, such as the powerful U.S. grassroots movement that has led to a de facto moratorium on new coal-fired power plants, had little to do with international negotiations. At no point did the leaders of this movement say that they wanted to ban new coal-fired power plants only if Europe does, if China does, or if the rest of the world does. They moved ahead unilaterally knowing that if the United States does not quickly cut carbon emissions, the world will be in trouble.

We are in a race between political tipping points and natural tipping points. Can we cut carbon emissions fast enough to save the Greenland ice sheet and avoid the resulting rise in sea level? Can we close coal-fired power plants fast enough to save the glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau, the ice melt of which sustains the major rivers and irrigation systems of Asia during the dry season? Can we stabilize population by reducing fertility before nature takes over and stabilizes our numbers by raising mortality?

On the climate front, everything seems to be moving faster. Only a few years ago summer sea ice in th e Arctic Ocean was shrinking, but it was projected to last for several decades. The most recent reports indicate that it could disappear in a matter of years.

Only a few years have passed since the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but already the rise in carbon dioxide emissions, the rise in temperature, and the rise in sea level are all moving faster than even the IPCC’s worst-case scenario.

The good news is that the shift to renewable energy is occurring at a rate and on a scale that we could not imagine even two years ago. Consider what is happening in Texas, in the heart of oil country. The over 8,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity in operation, the 1,000 megawatts under construction, and a huge amount in development will give it over 50,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity (think 50 coal-fired power plants). This will more than satisfy the residential needs of the state’s 24 million people.

China, with its Wind Base program, is working on seven wind farm mega-complexes with a total generating capacity of 110,000 megawatts. And this is in addition to the many smaller wind farms already in operation and under construction. A recent report in Science on an inventory of China’s wind resources concludes that the country can increase its current electricity generation sevenfold from wind alone.

Most recently, a consortium of European corporations and investment banks has announced a proposal to develop a massive amount of solar thermal generating capacity in North Africa, much of it for export to Europe. In total, it could easily exceed 300,000 megawatts—roughly three times the electrical generating capacity of France.

And we could cite many more examples. The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy is moving much faster than most people realize. In the United States, for example, while coal use has dropped 11 percent over the last two years, an estimated 190 new wind farms with over 16 ,000 megawatts of generating capacity have come online.

The question we face is not what we need to do, because that seems rather clear to those who are analyzing the global situation. The challenge is how to do it in the time available. Unfortunately we don’t know how much time remains. Nature is the timekeeper but we cannot see the clock.

In my recent book, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, I lay out a strategy to stabilize climate, curb population growth, eradicate poverty, and restore the earth’s damaged ecosystems. The climate component of that plan calls for reducing net carbon emissions worldwide 80 percent by 2020. The 2020 goal looks at what is needed to avert dangerous climate change, not just what is politically convenient. Plan B is ambitious simply because this is what it is going to take to turn things around. Will it be difficult? No question. Are the stakes high? No question.

The thinking that got us into this mess is not likely to get us out. We need a new mindset. Let me paraphrase a comment by environmentalist Paul Hawken in a 2009 college commencement address. In recognizing the enormity of the challenge facing us, he said: First we need to decide what needs to be done. Then we do it. And then we ask if it is possible.

 

Sam Garst
SamGarst@...
l www.thegarsts.com
6015 Marantha Lane SW; Olympia, WA 98512
360-491-4969: Home
l 360-570-3997: Work l 360-480-9964: Cell


Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear.
-- William E. Gladstone, British Prime Minister, 1809-1898

Liberalism is, I think, resurgent. One reason is that more and more people are so painfully aware of the alternative.
-- John Kenneth Galbraith, U.S. economist


#1805 From: Jim Lazar Listserve Address <jlazar@...>
Date: Mon Dec 21, 2009 7:56 pm
Subject: Re: [Envirotalk] Re: from Secure Green Future
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For those interested in reading the full Copenhagen Accord (for what it's worth, which is, at best, limited), it is attached and accessible at:
http://www.eenews.net/public/25/13656/features/documents/2009/12/19/document_gw_01.pdf

In the absence of hard commitments by other industrialized nations (in particular, China, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, and India -- making up one-third of global emissions), with whom our basic industries (steel, concrete, aluminum, copper, etc) must compete, it's pretty difficult to see why the US would agree to anything more specific. 

For me, it's a pretty simple equation:  if China and India are not willing to commit to stop building NEW conventional coal plants, I'm not willing to support an accelerated (i.e., prior to end-of-life) and uneconomic decommissioning program for EXISTING concoal plants. 

Of course, that inaction means that Antarctica and Greenland melt, and the State Capitol becomes beachfront in 50 - 200 years. 

But unilateral action by the countries emitting one-third of the total CO2 (U.S and E.U.) will not make enough difference to justify unilateral action on uneconomic actions.  The economic actions (such as the efficiency standard approved as part of I-937) should go forward regardless of what anyone else does, simply because they are good ideas regardless of what others do or do not do.   The ban on new coal plants approved as SB6001 two years ago is another good example of an appropriate unilateral action.  


-- Jim Lazar, Consulting Economist
Microdesign Northwest
1063 Capitol Way S. #202
Olympia, WA 98501
360-786-1822
Direct email: jim@...
Listserves: jlazar@...

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#1804 From: "Carole Richmond" <laikodi@...>
Date: Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:40 pm
Subject: For tech heads
laikodi@...
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#1803 From: Gita Moulton <gitamoulton@...>
Date: Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:56 am
Subject: Olympia Climate 2030 - Jan. 11
gitamoulton
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#1802 From: diuglas goslin <duglassitude@...>
Date: Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:08 am
Subject: Re: Olympia climate meeting Jan. 11 [1 Attachment]
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Chaos
CHAOS NEVER DIED. Primordial uncarved block, sole worshipful monster,
inert & spontaneous, more ultraviolet than any mythology (like the
shadows before Babylon), the original undifferentiated
oneness-of-being still radiates serene as the black pennants of
Assassins, random & perpetually intoxicated.
Chaos comes before all principles of order & entropy, it's neither a
god nor a maggot, its idiotic desires encompass & define every
possible choreography, all meaningless aethers & phlogistons: its
masks are crystallizations of its own facelessness, like clouds.
Everything in nature is perfectly real including consciousness,
there's absolutely nothing to worry about. Not only have the chains of
the Law been broken, they never existed; demons never guarded the
stars, the Empire never got started, Eros never grew a beard.



On Sun, Dec 20, 2009 at 6:16 PM, Gita Moulton <gitamoulton@...> wrote:
>>
>>
>



--
Douglas Goslin

#1801 From: Gita Moulton <gitamoulton@...>
Date: Mon Dec 21, 2009 2:16 am
Subject: Olympia climate meeting Jan. 11
gitamoulton
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>
>

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#1800 From: Mike Coday <mike@...>
Date: Mon Dec 21, 2009 1:09 am
Subject: Re: High Tide January 3
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I am hoping that Works in Progress will run the Amy Goodman interview of Vandana Shiva at Copenhagen from Dec 15th.  As a local sidebar, I plan to invite olympians to turn out on January 4th at 8:00 am at the Kissing Couple to observe a high tide and to reflect on sea level rise and climate justice. Please let me know if there is a change in time, date, plan. 

Thanks

Mike

samgarst wrote:
 

We need to meet at the Kiss stature at 8:00am on Janusary 4th.  sped the word.  It may be wet under our feet.
 

-- "The world is now too dangerous for anything less than utopia." - Buckminster Fuller 

#1799 From: Albert's <kealbert@...>
Date: Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:00 am
Subject: Re: from Secure Green Future
dalbert98503
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Jim, the catch is that we don't have time for an incremental approach.  If we limit ourselves to what is considered politically pragmatic, we are literally toast.  We need to change what is possible.  (Any ideas?)  --  Donna Albert

On Dec 19, 2009, at 5:34 PM, Jim Lazar Listserve Address wrote:

You only confirm the point that I made that my conservative friend is intellectually inept.  You did not address the pragmatic issue of how to achieve a package that will slow, then stop, then reverse the rising concentration of CO2.

If one thing is unambiguously clear, it is that a single agreement (international) or bill (domestic) that achieves 350 ppm is not going to pass.  We can continue doing nothing, or we can work incrementally.   

My point is that working incrementally DID leave a lot of people exposed to nasty air in Los Angeles for a long time, but ultimately DID slow, stop, and reverse the deterioration of air quality due to criteria pollutants.   

There are two issues.  Physics, and Psychics.   We need to address both.

Albert's wrote:
Jim, you have good points, but the problem is that physics does not care about them.  If we don't get the atmospheric concentrations below 350 ppm or less, we risk dangerous and irreversible changes to climate.  

Remember that the IPCC 2007 report was a consensus document based on science done mostly prior to 2006.  Read the IPCC 2007 AR4 Summary for Policymakers, and the UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 (updated with more recent science).  We are on course to exceed the SRES worst case scenario emissions levels from the IPCC 2007 report (most likely temperature rise 4 degrees C, range of 2.4 to 6.4 degrees C).  On top of that, the UNEP Compendium 2009 (update with more current science) says that natural systems are reacting to the forcing with greater warming than expected.  We are also losing the ice cap, which may be irreversible, at a lower temperature and lower GHG atmospheric concentrations, and sooner than the IPCC 2007 report anticipated.  If we stop all emissions today, we will still exceed 2.4 degrees C, due to the GHG already in the atmosphere.  None of this considers the potential for feedback loops such as the warming due to release of CO2 and methane from melting permafrost.  -- Donna Albert

On Dec 19, 2009, at 1:27 PM, Jim Lazar Listserve Address wrote:

I received two nearly simultaneous messages of "outrage" about what is happening in Copenhagen.

The one sent by Peggy is outraged that we are ONLY reducing emissions by 50%, and are ONLY providing $100 billion for third-world adaptation and mitigation.  We should "take to the streets."

The other, sent by a much more conservative professional acquaintance, is outraged that we are letting China and India get by with a smaller percentage reduction in emissions than the US must achieve, that we are spending ANY money from Americans on overseas climate change, and that we are not "waiting for better science" before moving ahead on an economy-destroying path..

The first (in my opinion) is politically naive.  The second (also in my opinion) is intellectually inept.  

In a Democracy, each of the authors get the same number of votes as I do.   Think about that.  

Avoidance of catastrophic climate change will need to happen in stages.   It is not politically pragmatic to expect the US Senate, much less the global community, to approve, at once, a package that will achieve 350 ppm.    

I'm reminded of the gradual implementation of auto emissions regulation.  The original California restrictions of the late 1960's -- exhaust gas recirculation to reduce NOx and unburned hydrocarbons -- was criticized as both "too little to clean the air" and "devastating to the economy."   People said:  "cars won't run, and people won't be able to get to work."  With a bit of tinkering, they worked OK, and eventually they were upgraded many times.   The result is quite dramatic.  

In my junior year of high school in Los Angeles, we had 61 "smog days" on which the air quality was too bad for kids to have outdoor physical education.   The standard (NOx-based) has not changed.  At my 30-year reunion, one of my classmates, who is now a P.E. teacher at my high school, told me that in the immediately previous year, they had TWO smog days.   

It took about six or eight rounds of "tightening" up emissions regulations to achieve that.   But today, you can see the mountains on most days from Santa Monica.   That was a rare sight in 1968.   

I expect climate regulation will need to be done the same way.   Get what we can now, and come back in a couple years as the science becomes (even more) irrefutable, and ratchet things down another notch, and so on until we reach 350 (or until World War III, whichever comes first).   

I'll note that WW III, by eliminating 90% of the humans on the planet, may be able to achieve more than Kyoto and Copenhagen.  Not the best solution for the human race, but the cockroaches are probably relatively indifferent.  

peggy bruton wrote:

 
I agree with this message. pb 
--
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:00:03 -0800 (PST)
From: Maggie Zhou <mzhou_us@yahoo.com>
To: no-offsets@googlegroups.com, wg@securegreenfuture.org,
  Discussion List for StateCom members <statecom-discuss@green-rainbow.org>,
  Beth Adams <eadams333@gmail.com>,
  Climate Change and Biodiversity List <gwspecies@lists.onenw.org>
Subject: [gwspecies] Obama's Copenhagen Accord (discussion went all night,
 still going)

here is my read of what Obama is pushing onto the world, with lots of skillful spins:

1. overall target only set for 2050: globally 50% emission cut, annex I (developed) countries 80% cut.  Continue to glaringly pretend that this will hold temp rise to 2 degrees (UNEP conclusion is 3 to 4 degrees C).  Africa will see 1.5x global average temp rise.
2. the two tracks seem preserved at the moment, one of the few upshots.
3. no target set for the crucial near term.  no country specific numbers on the table.  no real enforcement mechanism.
4. market mechanisms will continue and further scale up.
5. developed countries will provide 30 billion dollars in the period 2010-2012 (didn't say annual, so i presume it's total?), and reaching 100 billion annually by 2020, to help with developing countries' mitigation and adaptation costs.
6. the money will be managed by an entity set up by the UNFCCC, not world bank etc. (upshot)
7. accelerating technology development and transfer is taken de facto, no mention of technology evaluation for safety and effectiveness as urged by civil societies.

This is beyond an outrage. We need to be all out in the streets and refuse this planetary destruction!

Maggie
Begin forwarded message:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/climate-change/copenhagen-accord-4.30pm.pdf





Purposes: To gather and transmit information about the the
ecological impact of global warming, to promote public and
conservationist education about the ecological impact of global
warming, and to identify and encourage appropriate policy for
species affected by global warming.  The related topic of how to
reduce emissions, although crucially important, will be left for other
settings.

To facilitate free discussion without adherence to a "party line,"
messages posted by members of this list represent the opinions of the
individual members and may not reflect the opinions of all members or
the list's founders.

FAIR USE NOTICE
gwspecies@lists.onenw.org sometimes circulates copyrighted material the
use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the
copyright owner. The material is being made available for purposes of
education and discussion of the ecological impact of global warming .
We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted
material as provided for in relevant national laws.

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior
interest in human and environmental rights for educational, personal
and non-commercial use only.

All efforts are made to provide accurate, timely pieces, though
ultimate responsibility for verifying all information rests with the
reader. Gwspecies@lists.onenw.org cannot guarantee that the information
it circulates is complete and correct or be liable for any loss incurred
as a result of its use. Nor can gwspecies@lists.onenw.org be responsible
for any subsequent use of the material. Anyone intending to use this
material for commercial or other purposes not covered by Title 17
U.S.C Section 107 must contact the copyright holder for permission.




-- Jim Lazar, Consulting Economist
Microdesign Northwest
1063 Capitol Way S. #202
Olympia, WA 98501
360-786-1822
Direct email: jim@jimlazar.com
Listserves: jlazar@jimlazar.com




#1798 From: peggy bruton <gimleteye@...>
Date: Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:19 am
Subject: Re: from Secure Green Future
gimleteye@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Jim, it's not that I don't agree w/your assessment that the response to climate change will build incrementally, but the right time to begin was 30 years ago and citizen activists taking to the streets calling for gradualism just somehow lacks the appropriate cachet.  I think approaches like the one Maggie Zhou is advocating are a vital part of the process, part of what's needed to make it high profile enough to penetrate the hermetically sealed consciences of Joe Sixpack & Co.  I am not among those denouncing Obama's actions as "shameful" or "monstrous" in their failure to address the magnitude of the problem; but in order to be able to do meaningful things, he needs a clamorous public outcry -- which will move our neanderthal Congress forward, even as it creates a backlash from the most determinedly ostrich-like in the fold. That's where I am. Au barricades, mes freres; aux armes, citoyens, levee vos batallions, etc. etc.

p

On Dec 19, 2009, at 1:27 PM, Jim Lazar Listserve Address wrote:

I received two nearly simultaneous messages of "outrage" about what is happening in Copenhagen.

The one sent by Peggy is outraged that we are ONLY reducing emissions by 50%, and are ONLY providing $100 billion for third-world adaptation and mitigation.  We should "take to the streets."

The other, sent by a much more conservative professional acquaintance, is outraged that we are letting China and India get by with a smaller percentage reduction in emissions than the US must achieve, that we are spending ANY money from Americans on overseas climate change, and that we are not "waiting for better science" before moving ahead on an economy-destroying path..

The first (in my opinion) is politically naive.  The second (also in my opinion) is intellectually inept. 

In a Democracy, each of the authors get the same number of votes as I do.   Think about that. 

Avoidance of catastrophic climate change will need to happen in stages.   It is not politically pragmatic to expect the US Senate, much less the global community, to approve, at once, a package that will achieve 350 ppm.   

I'm reminded of the gradual implementation of auto emissions regulation.  The original California restrictions of the late 1960's -- exhaust gas recirculation to reduce NOx and unburned hydrocarbons -- was criticized as both "too little to clean the air" and "devastating to the economy."   People said:  "cars won't run, and people won't be able to get to work."  With a bit of tinkering, they worked OK, and eventually they were upgraded many times.   The result is quite dramatic. 

In my junior year of high school in Los Angeles, we had 61 "smog days" on which the air quality was too bad for kids to have outdoor physical education.   The standard (NOx-based) has not changed.  At my 30-year reunion, one of my classmates, who is now a P.E. teacher at my high school, told me that in the immediately previous year, they had TWO smog days.  

It took about six or eight rounds of "tightening" up emissions regulations to achieve that.   But today, you can see the mountains on most days from Santa Monica.   That was a rare sight in 1968.  

I expect climate regulation will need to be done the same way.   Get what we can now, and come back in a couple years as the science becomes (even more) irrefutable, and ratchet things down another notch, and so on until we reach 350 (or until World War III, whichever comes first).  

I'll note that WW III, by eliminating 90% of the humans on the planet, may be able to achieve more than Kyoto and Copenhagen.  Not the best solution for the human race, but the cockroaches are probably relatively indifferent. 

peggy bruton wrote:
 
I agree with this message. pb 
--
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:00:03 -0800 (PST)
From: Maggie Zhou <mzhou_us@yahoo.com>
To: no-offsets@googlegroups.com, wg@securegreenfuture.org,
  Discussion List for StateCom members <statecom-discuss@green-rainbow.org>,
  Beth Adams <eadams333@gmail.com>,
  Climate Change and Biodiversity List <gwspecies@lists.onenw.org>
Subject: [gwspecies] Obama's Copenhagen Accord (discussion went all night,
 still going)

here is my read of what Obama is pushing onto the world, with lots of skillful spins:

1. overall target only set for 2050: globally 50% emission cut, annex I (developed) countries 80% cut.  Continue to glaringly pretend that this will hold temp rise to 2 degrees (UNEP conclusion is 3 to 4 degrees C).  Africa will see 1.5x global average temp rise.
2. the two tracks seem preserved at the moment, one of the few upshots.
3. no target set for the crucial near term.  no country specific numbers on the table.  no real enforcement mechanism.
4. market mechanisms will continue and further scale up.
5. developed countries will provide 30 billion dollars in the period 2010-2012 (didn't say annual, so i presume it's total?), and reaching 100 billion annually by 2020, to help with developing countries' mitigation and adaptation costs.
6. the money will be managed by an entity set up by the UNFCCC, not world bank etc. (upshot)
7. accelerating technology development and transfer is taken de facto, no mention of technology evaluation for safety and effectiveness as urged by civil societies.

This is beyond an outrage. We need to be all out in the streets and refuse this planetary destruction!

Maggie
Begin forwarded message:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/climate-change/copenhagen-accord-4.30pm.pdf





Purposes: To gather and transmit information about the the
ecological impact of global warming, to promote public and
conservationist education about the ecological impact of global
warming, and to identify and encourage appropriate policy for
species affected by global warming.  The related topic of how to
reduce emissions, although crucially important, will be left for other
settings.

To facilitate free discussion without adherence to a "party line,"
messages posted by members of this list represent the opinions of the
individual members and may not reflect the opinions of all members or
the list's founders.

FAIR USE NOTICE
gwspecies@lists.onenw.org sometimes circulates copyrighted material the
use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the
copyright owner. The material is being made available for purposes of
education and discussion of the ecological impact of global warming .
We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted
material as provided for in relevant national laws.

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior
interest in human and environmental rights for educational, personal
and non-commercial use only.

All efforts are made to provide accurate, timely pieces, though
ultimate responsibility for verifying all information rests with the
reader. Gwspecies@lists.onenw.org cannot guarantee that the information
it circulates is complete and correct or be liable for any loss incurred
as a result of its use. Nor can gwspecies@lists.onenw.org be responsible
for any subsequent use of the material. Anyone intending to use this
material for commercial or other purposes not covered by Title 17
U.S.C Section 107 must contact the copyright holder for permission.




-- Jim Lazar, Consulting Economist
Microdesign Northwest
1063 Capitol Way S. #202
Olympia, WA 98501
360-786-1822
Direct email: jim@...
Listserves: jlazar@...


#1797 From: Albert's <kealbert@...>
Date: Sat Dec 19, 2009 10:46 pm
Subject: Re: from Secure Green Future
dalbert98503
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Jim, you have good points, but the problem is that physics does not care about them.  If we don't get the atmospheric concentrations below 350 ppm or less, we risk dangerous and irreversible changes to climate.  

Remember that the IPCC 2007 report was a consensus document based on science done mostly prior to 2006.  Read the IPCC 2007 AR4 Summary for Policymakers, and the UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 (updated with more recent science).  We are on course to exceed the SRES worst case scenario emissions levels from the IPCC 2007 report (most likely temperature rise 4 degrees C, range of 2.4 to 6.4 degrees C).  On top of that, the UNEP Compendium 2009 (update with more current science) says that natural systems are reacting to the forcing with greater warming than expected.  We are also losing the ice cap, which may be irreversible, at a lower temperature and lower GHG atmospheric concentrations, and sooner than the IPCC 2007 report anticipated.  If we stop all emissions today, we will still exceed 2.4 degrees C, due to the GHG already in the atmosphere.  None of this considers the potential for feedback loops such as the warming due to release of CO2 and methane from melting permafrost.  -- Donna Albert

On Dec 19, 2009, at 1:27 PM, Jim Lazar Listserve Address wrote:

I received two nearly simultaneous messages of "outrage" about what is happening in Copenhagen.

The one sent by Peggy is outraged that we are ONLY reducing emissions by 50%, and are ONLY providing $100 billion for third-world adaptation and mitigation.  We should "take to the streets."

The other, sent by a much more conservative professional acquaintance, is outraged that we are letting China and India get by with a smaller percentage reduction in emissions than the US must achieve, that we are spending ANY money from Americans on overseas climate change, and that we are not "waiting for better science" before moving ahead on an economy-destroying path..

The first (in my opinion) is politically naive.  The second (also in my opinion) is intellectually inept.  

In a Democracy, each of the authors get the same number of votes as I do.   Think about that.  

Avoidance of catastrophic climate change will need to happen in stages.   It is not politically pragmatic to expect the US Senate, much less the global community, to approve, at once, a package that will achieve 350 ppm.    

I'm reminded of the gradual implementation of auto emissions regulation.  The original California restrictions of the late 1960's -- exhaust gas recirculation to reduce NOx and unburned hydrocarbons -- was criticized as both "too little to clean the air" and "devastating to the economy."   People said:  "cars won't run, and people won't be able to get to work."  With a bit of tinkering, they worked OK, and eventually they were upgraded many times.   The result is quite dramatic.  

In my junior year of high school in Los Angeles, we had 61 "smog days" on which the air quality was too bad for kids to have outdoor physical education.   The standard (NOx-based) has not changed.  At my 30-year reunion, one of my classmates, who is now a P.E. teacher at my high school, told me that in the immediately previous year, they had TWO smog days.   

It took about six or eight rounds of "tightening" up emissions regulations to achieve that.   But today, you can see the mountains on most days from Santa Monica.   That was a rare sight in 1968.   

I expect climate regulation will need to be done the same way.   Get what we can now, and come back in a couple years as the science becomes (even more) irrefutable, and ratchet things down another notch, and so on until we reach 350 (or until World War III, whichever comes first).   

I'll note that WW III, by eliminating 90% of the humans on the planet, may be able to achieve more than Kyoto and Copenhagen.  Not the best solution for the human race, but the cockroaches are probably relatively indifferent.  

peggy bruton wrote:

 
I agree with this message. pb 
--
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:00:03 -0800 (PST)
From: Maggie Zhou <mzhou_us@yahoo.com>
To: no-offsets@googlegroups.com, wg@securegreenfuture.org,
  Discussion List for StateCom members <statecom-discuss@green-rainbow.org>,
  Beth Adams <eadams333@gmail.com>,
  Climate Change and Biodiversity List <gwspecies@lists.onenw.org>
Subject: [gwspecies] Obama's Copenhagen Accord (discussion went all night,
 still going)

here is my read of what Obama is pushing onto the world, with lots of skillful spins:

1. overall target only set for 2050: globally 50% emission cut, annex I (developed) countries 80% cut.  Continue to glaringly pretend that this will hold temp rise to 2 degrees (UNEP conclusion is 3 to 4 degrees C).  Africa will see 1.5x global average temp rise.
2. the two tracks seem preserved at the moment, one of the few upshots.
3. no target set for the crucial near term.  no country specific numbers on the table.  no real enforcement mechanism.
4. market mechanisms will continue and further scale up.
5. developed countries will provide 30 billion dollars in the period 2010-2012 (didn't say annual, so i presume it's total?), and reaching 100 billion annually by 2020, to help with developing countries' mitigation and adaptation costs.
6. the money will be managed by an entity set up by the UNFCCC, not world bank etc. (upshot)
7. accelerating technology development and transfer is taken de facto, no mention of technology evaluation for safety and effectiveness as urged by civil societies.

This is beyond an outrage. We need to be all out in the streets and refuse this planetary destruction!

Maggie
Begin forwarded message:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/climate-change/copenhagen-accord-4.30pm.pdf





Purposes: To gather and transmit information about the the
ecological impact of global warming, to promote public and
conservationist education about the ecological impact of global
warming, and to identify and encourage appropriate policy for
species affected by global warming.  The related topic of how to
reduce emissions, although crucially important, will be left for other
settings.

To facilitate free discussion without adherence to a "party line,"
messages posted by members of this list represent the opinions of the
individual members and may not reflect the opinions of all members or
the list's founders.

FAIR USE NOTICE
gwspecies@lists.onenw.org sometimes circulates copyrighted material the
use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the
copyright owner. The material is being made available for purposes of
education and discussion of the ecological impact of global warming .
We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted
material as provided for in relevant national laws.

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior
interest in human and environmental rights for educational, personal
and non-commercial use only.

All efforts are made to provide accurate, timely pieces, though
ultimate responsibility for verifying all information rests with the
reader. Gwspecies@lists.onenw.org cannot guarantee that the information
it circulates is complete and correct or be liable for any loss incurred
as a result of its use. Nor can gwspecies@lists.onenw.org be responsible
for any subsequent use of the material. Anyone intending to use this
material for commercial or other purposes not covered by Title 17
U.S.C Section 107 must contact the copyright holder for permission.




-- Jim Lazar, Consulting Economist
Microdesign Northwest
1063 Capitol Way S. #202
Olympia, WA 98501
360-786-1822
Direct email: jim@jimlazar.com
Listserves: jlazar@jimlazar.com



#1796 From: Jim Lazar Listserve Address <jlazar@...>
Date: Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:27 pm
Subject: Re: from Secure Green Future
jimlazar
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
I received two nearly simultaneous messages of "outrage" about what is happening in Copenhagen.

The one sent by Peggy is outraged that we are ONLY reducing emissions by 50%, and are ONLY providing $100 billion for third-world adaptation and mitigation.  We should "take to the streets."

The other, sent by a much more conservative professional acquaintance, is outraged that we are letting China and India get by with a smaller percentage reduction in emissions than the US must achieve, that we are spending ANY money from Americans on overseas climate change, and that we are not "waiting for better science" before moving ahead on an economy-destroying path..

The first (in my opinion) is politically naive.  The second (also in my opinion) is intellectually inept. 

In a Democracy, each of the authors get the same number of votes as I do.   Think about that. 

Avoidance of catastrophic climate change will need to happen in stages.   It is not politically pragmatic to expect the US Senate, much less the global community, to approve, at once, a package that will achieve 350 ppm.   

I'm reminded of the gradual implementation of auto emissions regulation.  The original California restrictions of the late 1960's -- exhaust gas recirculation to reduce NOx and unburned hydrocarbons -- was criticized as both "too little to clean the air" and "devastating to the economy."   People said:  "cars won't run, and people won't be able to get to work."  With a bit of tinkering, they worked OK, and eventually they were upgraded many times.   The result is quite dramatic. 

In my junior year of high school in Los Angeles, we had 61 "smog days" on which the air quality was too bad for kids to have outdoor physical education.   The standard (NOx-based) has not changed.  At my 30-year reunion, one of my classmates, who is now a P.E. teacher at my high school, told me that in the immediately previous year, they had TWO smog days.  

It took about six or eight rounds of "tightening" up emissions regulations to achieve that.   But today, you can see the mountains on most days from Santa Monica.   That was a rare sight in 1968.  

I expect climate regulation will need to be done the same way.   Get what we can now, and come back in a couple years as the science becomes (even more) irrefutable, and ratchet things down another notch, and so on until we reach 350 (or until World War III, whichever comes first).  

I'll note that WW III, by eliminating 90% of the humans on the planet, may be able to achieve more than Kyoto and Copenhagen.  Not the best solution for the human race, but the cockroaches are probably relatively indifferent. 

peggy bruton wrote:
 
I agree with this message. pb 
--
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:00:03 -0800 (PST)
From: Maggie Zhou <mzhou_us@yahoo.com>
To: no-offsets@googlegroups.com, wg@securegreenfuture.org,
  Discussion List for StateCom members <statecom-discuss@green-rainbow.org>,
  Beth Adams <eadams333@gmail.com>,
  Climate Change and Biodiversity List <gwspecies@lists.onenw.org>
Subject: [gwspecies] Obama's Copenhagen Accord (discussion went all night,
 still going)

here is my read of what Obama is pushing onto the world, with lots of skillful spins:

1. overall target only set for 2050: globally 50% emission cut, annex I (developed) countries 80% cut.  Continue to glaringly pretend that this will hold temp rise to 2 degrees (UNEP conclusion is 3 to 4 degrees C).  Africa will see 1.5x global average temp rise.
2. the two tracks seem preserved at the moment, one of the few upshots.
3. no target set for the crucial near term.  no country specific numbers on the table.  no real enforcement mechanism.
4. market mechanisms will continue and further scale up.
5. developed countries will provide 30 billion dollars in the period 2010-2012 (didn't say annual, so i presume it's total?), and reaching 100 billion annually by 2020, to help with developing countries' mitigation and adaptation costs.
6. the money will be managed by an entity set up by the UNFCCC, not world bank etc. (upshot)
7. accelerating technology development and transfer is taken de facto, no mention of technology evaluation for safety and effectiveness as urged by civil societies.

This is beyond an outrage. We need to be all out in the streets and refuse this planetary destruction!

Maggie
Begin forwarded message:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/climate-change/copenhagen-accord-4.30pm.pdf





Purposes: To gather and transmit information about the the
ecological impact of global warming, to promote public and
conservationist education about the ecological impact of global
warming, and to identify and encourage appropriate policy for
species affected by global warming.  The related topic of how to
reduce emissions, although crucially important, will be left for other
settings.

To facilitate free discussion without adherence to a "party line,"
messages posted by members of this list represent the opinions of the
individual members and may not reflect the opinions of all members or
the list's founders.

FAIR USE NOTICE
gwspecies@lists.onenw.org sometimes circulates copyrighted material the
use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the
copyright owner. The material is being made available for purposes of
education and discussion of the ecological impact of global warming .
We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted
material as provided for in relevant national laws.

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior
interest in human and environmental rights for educational, personal
and non-commercial use only.

All efforts are made to provide accurate, timely pieces, though
ultimate responsibility for verifying all information rests with the
reader. Gwspecies@lists.onenw.org cannot guarantee that the information
it circulates is complete and correct or be liable for any loss incurred
as a result of its use. Nor can gwspecies@lists.onenw.org be responsible
for any subsequent use of the material. Anyone intending to use this
material for commercial or other purposes not covered by Title 17
U.S.C Section 107 must contact the copyright holder for permission.




-- Jim Lazar, Consulting Economist
Microdesign Northwest
1063 Capitol Way S. #202
Olympia, WA 98501
360-786-1822
Direct email: jim@...
Listserves: jlazar@...

#1795 From: peggy bruton <gimleteye@...>
Date: Sat Dec 19, 2009 7:58 pm
Subject: from Secure Green Future
gimleteye@...
Send Email Send Email
 
I agree with this message. pb 
--
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:00:03 -0800 (PST)
From: Maggie Zhou <mzhou_us@...>
To: no-offsets@googlegroups.com, wg@...,
  Discussion List for StateCom members <statecom-discuss@...>,
  Beth Adams <eadams333@...>,
  Climate Change and Biodiversity List <gwspecies@...>
Subject: [gwspecies] Obama's Copenhagen Accord (discussion went all night,
 still going)

here is my read of what Obama is pushing onto the world, with lots of skillful spins:

1. overall target only set for 2050: globally 50% emission cut, annex I (developed) countries 80% cut.  Continue to glaringly pretend that this will hold temp rise to 2 degrees (UNEP conclusion is 3 to 4 degrees C).  Africa will see 1.5x global average temp rise.
2. the two tracks seem preserved at the moment, one of the few upshots.
3. no target set for the crucial near term.  no country specific numbers on the table.  no real enforcement mechanism.
4. market mechanisms will continue and further scale up.
5. developed countries will provide 30 billion dollars in the period 2010-2012 (didn't say annual, so i presume it's total?), and reaching 100 billion annually by 2020, to help with developing countries' mitigation and adaptation costs.
6. the money will be managed by an entity set up by the UNFCCC, not world bank etc. (upshot)
7. accelerating technology development and transfer is taken de facto, no mention of technology evaluation for safety and effectiveness as urged by civil societies.

This is beyond an outrage. We need to be all out in the streets and refuse this planetary destruction!

Maggie
Begin forwarded message:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/climate-change/copenhagen-accord-4.30pm.pdf





Purposes: To gather and transmit information about the the
ecological impact of global warming, to promote public and
conservationist education about the ecological impact of global
warming, and to identify and encourage appropriate policy for
species affected by global warming.  The related topic of how to
reduce emissions, although crucially important, will be left for other
settings.

To facilitate free discussion without adherence to a "party line,"
messages posted by members of this list represent the opinions of the
individual members and may not reflect the opinions of all members or
the list's founders.

FAIR USE NOTICE
gwspecies@... sometimes circulates copyrighted material the
use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the
copyright owner. The material is being made available for purposes of
education and discussion of the ecological impact of global warming .
We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted
material as provided for in relevant national laws.

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior
interest in human and environmental rights for educational, personal
and non-commercial use only.

All efforts are made to provide accurate, timely pieces, though
ultimate responsibility for verifying all information rests with the
reader. Gwspecies@... cannot guarantee that the information
it circulates is complete and correct or be liable for any loss incurred
as a result of its use. Nor can gwspecies@... be responsible
for any subsequent use of the material. Anyone intending to use this
material for commercial or other purposes not covered by Title 17
U.S.C Section 107 must contact the copyright holder for permission.




#1794 From: Pat Rasmussen <patr@...>
Date: Sat Dec 19, 2009 2:16 am
Subject: Vandana Shiva: US a Polluter Nation Hiding as A Donor Nation
patr@...
Send Email Send Email
 
70 percent of the water in my region of the Himalaya, from where the
Ganges emerges, has gone. - Vandana Shiva


http://www.democracynow.org/2009/12/14/indian_environmentalist_vandana_shiva_it_is

Vandana Shiva in Copenhagen interviewed by Democracy Now! yesterday   -AB

   VANDANA SHIVA: This is what earth democracy looks like: the
diversity, the integrity, the joy, the beauty. That's what we are
going to build on. What's happening at COP15 is the death of
democracy. It's an attempt to undo twenty years of work on a legally
binding agreement. People are not in Copenhagen to bury the climate
treaty; they are here to implement it, with an acceleration.

      To the governments who would like to cheat the world, cheat the
earth, cheat their own people, like the Danish government, which
comes with a mysterious text out of nowhere, or the United States
government that is playing games with India and China to undo the
international obligations, we want to tell you from before, when you
arrive for your political service circus, we will not be supporting
you. We will not be cheering you.

      We know we need climate action now. I come from the Himalaya. I
just had an office in Delhi; I don't live in Delhi. It's a polluted
city. The automobile has taken over. I come from the Himalaya. Our
glaciers are melting. Our villages are getting flooded out or drying
up. Agriculture is collapsing. Ninety percent of the food production
in my area has collapsed in this year. Seventy percent of the streams
have dried up. And that is not happening because of what the local
people did. My journey in the environment movement began with Chipko,
where women came out to hug the trees. We are now hugging our
mountains and telling the polluters, "You've got to stop polluting,
because you are stealing our water, you are stealing our food, you
are stealing our snows.


AMY GOODMAN: Voices from Saturday's protests in Copenhagen, produced
by Jacquie Soohen. That last voice, Vandana Shiva, the world-renowned
environmental leader and thinker from India.

On Sunday, I caught up with her at Klimaforum, the People's Climate
Summit, which is taking place across Copenhagen from the Bella
Center, where the official talks are taking place. I asked Vandana
Shiva for her assessment of President Obama and what he represents at
the climate change talks.

      VANDANA SHIVA: I think President Obama represents a captive
White House, captive to the industrial interests and the corporate
interests of America. I would like to see President Obama represent
Michelle's organic garden. But he doesn't bring the organic solution
to Copenhagen. He brings, first and foremost, the juggling of
figures, a reduction that will be of four percent, which is announced
as a 16 percent reduction, but, even more, the juggling of politics,
where, behind all this, he tries to say we don't need the UN treaty,
we don't need to sign onto the Kyoto Protocol. During his elections,
he talked a lot about joining the Kyoto Protocol. I think the most
important thing President Obama could do would be sign the Kyoto
Protocol and then shape it democratically.

      AMY GOODMAN: What is your message to him as he comes this week
to Copenhagen?

      VANDANA SHIVA: My message to him is, do not destroy the
international treaty; abide by it, and enlarge and deepen it. But do
not dismantle it, because you will be dismantling the only legal
framework the world has to make the polluters pay, to create a system
in which we can start shifting from a fossil fuel-driven civilization
to a renewable energy-driven civilization.

      AMY GOODMAN: Who are the interests you say he is captured by in
the United States?

      VANDANA SHIVA: He's captured by agribusiness, which wants to
sell more fertilizers, like Cargill. He's captured by the Monsantos,
who would like to continue industrial agriculture and take the GMO
way. He's captured by the automobile industry, that will continue
to-continue to sell new automobiles. What's it called? "Chunkers for
Cash"? Cunker?

      AMY GOODMAN: Clunkers.

      VANDANA SHIVA: Clunkers for Cash. Keep making more cars. Keep
destroying them. Plunder the planet. And somehow the planet will get
saved. And, of course, the oil industry. All of this.

      AMY GOODMAN: For those who debate in the United States, still
the issue is, is global warming caused by human beings? What message
do you have to them? Very concretely, the evidence of this around the
world?

      VANDANA SHIVA: I don't think we should talk about what's
happening only as global warming. What's happening is climate
instability, and it is threatening lives. I've just shown a film this
morning of what climate instability is doing to peaceful communities
of the Himalaya, who never use fossil fuels. But today their glaciers
are disappearing. Today, instead of snow, they're getting rainfall
that washes away their villages in flash floods. We have climate
instability.

      And to the climate skeptics, I would say, just look around you.
Look at the season. Remember Katrina. All these extreme events are
part of climate instability and climate uncertainty. That is
happening; no one can deny. And we'd better be prepared to deal with
it.

      AMY GOODMAN: There is a big campaign here called "Hopenhagen."

      VANDANA SHIVA: Yeah.

      AMY GOODMAN: Among the corporate sponsors are Coca-Cola.

      VANDANA SHIVA: Yeah.

      AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about the global effects of Coca-Cola?

      VANDANA SHIVA: Yeah, my heart just sank, because when I got off
the flight, the first thing I saw was a Coca-Cola bottle,
"Hopenhagen." Well, if you've been to Plachimada, India, where 1.4
million liters, 1.5 million liters were extracted by Coca-Cola every
day, and-

      AMY GOODMAN: Liters of water?

      VANDANA SHIVA: Liters of water to make these soft drinks and to
do the bottling of water. The women had to rise up against Coca-Cola.
The women had to say, "Shut this plant down, because we are having to
walk ten miles to get clean and safe water." That would not be
Hopenhagen. The women of Plachimada would not see hope in a Coca-Cola
bottle.

      AMY GOODMAN: Where is Plachimada?

      VANDANA SHIVA: Plachimada is a little village in Kerala where
the women organized and shut down a Coca-Cola plant, and this
triggered a movement across India. Three plants have been shut down.
Coca-Cola does not bring hope, and Coca-Cola should not be the symbol
of finding solutions for the climate crisis.

      AMY GOODMAN: What is the effect of climate disruption on cultures?

      VANDANA SHIVA: The most important disruption of climate havoc
on cultures is fear. Peaceful communities start becoming scared. For
example, this year, as the monsoon failed in India, and its failure
was much more extreme than normal droughts, farmers have waited to
get a crop, and they haven't got a crop. They become afraid.

      Beyond a point, as the water disappears, because your
groundwater hasn't being recharged, your rivers and streams haven't
been recharged, beyond a point, conflicts emerge in local
communities, which is why the G-77 constantly refers to Darfur as
linked to climate change with the disappearance of water from Lake
Chad.

      AMY GOODMAN: Explain.

      VANDANA SHIVA: As the rainfall has failed in the sub-Saharan
Africa, Lake Chad has shrunk. The communities that used to be
supported in a very generous way by that lake are having less and
less water. Pastoralists and settled agriculturalists have come in
conflict. It so happens they belong to different religion. This has
been presented as a religious conflict. It's really a conflict that
emerges from climate change and climate change degradation of already
degraded environments.

      AMY GOODMAN: What is a climate refugee?

      VANDANA SHIVA: A climate refugee is someone who has been
uprooted from their home, from their livelihoods, because of climate
instability. It could be people who've had to leave their agriculture
because of extended drought. It could be communities in the Himalaya
who are having to leave their villages, either because flash floods
are washing out their villages or because streams are disappearing.
We've just finished a participatory study that's showing that 70
percent of the water in my region of the Himalaya, from where the
Ganges emerges, has gone. The streams are dry. It could be a cyclone
victim-30,000 one time, 100,000 one time. They never go back home.
This number will continue to increase.

      There are ways we can deal with it: stop the pollution of the
atmosphere that's leading to it, which is why COP15 becomes so vital;
and secondly, recognize we're all citizens of an earth family, and we
need to start giving shelter to each other in times of distress.
There is an attempt to turn this into a Security Council issue, into
a defense issue, into an issue of the Pentagon. That would be the
most dangerous way to go.

      AMY GOODMAN: The US climate negotiator Jonathan Pershing-

      VANDANA SHIVA: Yeah.

      AMY GOODMAN: -said that the donor countries only have so much largesse.

      VANDANA SHIVA: Yeah.

      AMY GOODMAN: What is your response to that?

      VANDANA SHIVA: I think it's time for the US to stop seeing
itself as a donor and recognizing itself as a polluter, a polluter
who must pay, a polluter who must pay compensation and pay their
ecological debt. This is not about charity. This is about justice.


AMY GOODMAN: Indian environmentalist Vandana Shiva.


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Pat Rasmussen
World Temperate Rainforest Network
PO Box 13273
Olympia, WA 98508
509-669-1549
www.temperaterainforest.org

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