Dear Friends:

Terrorism, while an old phenomenon, has taken new dimensions over the last 8 years or so.  Why suddenly, this surge of terroristic activities and how they can be addressed to be eradicated from our societies.  Not an easy task by any standards.

First, we need to agree that Extremism and Terrorism are not one and the same; while one responds with extreme measures in reaction to an event or an existing socio-economic or socio-political  situation or as a response to a direct measure of someone else that are often disproportionate to the existing or the applied force; the other however, spreads the senses of terror to induce fear among the general mass to attain certain pre-conceived response to an existing or introduced act of intervention.  There is a correlation between the two but one does not replace the other neither can one be super-imposed on the other.  With that definition in mind, I would start my analysis.

While it is true that personalities do come into play in the transformation of an individual to resort to extreme means or being able to spread terror, the psyche however has a more dominant role in that transformation.  There are two groups of people involved in the process in both cases.  First is a visionary, who understands the loopholes of the existing laws that govern our social and political architectures, our environment and the instruments available at our hand that can be skillfully applied to exploit the psyche of second Group.  The second Group, on the other hand, is the operatives and the instruments, which reacts in a way that satisfies the intellectual design of the first group.  In the cases of Extremist, the first Group can not be segmented out from the second.  In Terrorism however, these are two very distinct Groups of peoples playing two different roles. The people with extreme psyche can be exploited by the visionaries to serve their purpose and as such, extremists may unknowingly become part of a terror network.

Among the tools that are available to human beings, especially for the Visionaries, there is nothing more powerful than a religion to induce senses of common purpose among a synchronous and harmonious group of people, where a faith is at stake.  However, in Terrorism and Extremism, there are other tools as well that can be as lethal as religion.  Senses of Deprivation, Oppression and Injustice, are other lethal factors that can bee easily exploited by the visionaries to exert on their agendas.  Now if religion is compounded with the other three factors, one can imagine the force of cohesion it would produce.  Extremism is a response of an individual or a Group with no particular cohesion of a purpose but Terrorism does have a sense of purpose.

Now that we have defined the Terrorism and Extremism, I would focus on the Terrorism only in the rest of my article.  The emergence of terrorism has its roots in the sense of Ones feelings of being deprived of his/her rights and the failure of the establishments and existing laws to secure what is perceived to be his/her rightful place in the social architecture and hierarchy.  If someone or an Organized Group senses that discomfort among the general mass or a group of people, the Visionary would exploit those feelings to stream and guide them to a common purpose that is larger than all individuals.  That is the start of the phenomenon what we call in today’s term Terrorism.  This is a broad definition and can be adapted to each and every act of terrorism as we perceive today around the globe.

Of all what we see today, each and every act of terrorism is somewhat linked to the roots of religion and specifically to Islam. It is however not the Moslems who categorize themselves as Terrorists but are branded by others as such.  If we look at the history: neither Lenin, nor Stalin, or Mao Tse Tung,  Che Guavera, Tikka Khan, Yahia Khan, Chengiz Khan  or even Hitler are branded as Terrorists although they had resorted to acts of terrorism in promoting their plans and programs.  May so be, who or what they were targeting to remove from the social architectures might have termed them as terrorists at the time but the outcome of the events have relieved them of the title.  One thing you would find common in most of those cases I have listed here, they were either successful in achieving what they set out for or were part of the establishment defending a cause of their own.  Religion was never a part of those, I have named in the list.  There might have been some but religion was never the main cause or the main motivation of their acts.  They might have had exploited religion (either for or against to advance their cause).

Coming back to our modern day terrorism and the roots thereof, we have to understand that the world is in a transitory stage right now looking for the right balance of power.  There is clearly a vacuum that needs to be filled and bridged for the natural phenomenon to take its roots.  With the collapse of the communism, the world is looking for an alternative that can fill that vacuum.  There are focuses on various systems at work that can effectively replace the communistic systems.  What we see today as the war of the civilizations is nothing more than the outcome of that focus.  Islam is under scrutiny, as one of the probable replacement for communism and as an alternative to the Capitalistic system being pursued by the West.  People are getting to learn the fundamentals of the religion and the code of its operations as not only a religious system but social and economic structures as well. 

It would not be too much for me to say that it is only at the start of its scrutiny that might take some 20 more years or so before a balancing system is enacted.  The push of the war of the civilizations was a measured one and was intended for the religious rights to push for their own brand of replacement for the communist systems.  The act of 9/11 was nothing more than part of that act and the war that followed, was an attempt to divide the globe based on religion with two distinct hemispheres with two distinct systems governing their political, economy and social systems.  The process however, had its first jolt with the election of Barack Obama, who came to power with a mission of change.  He had rightly understood the agenda of the religious right and offered an alternative to the mass in the US and around the world to halt the division of peoples on the basis of religion. “Fear” is the tool for Terrorism and that “Hope” has beaten “Fear” in the US squarely.  This is clearly a set back for those who induces “fear” into the hearts of the people to manage and rule them. It is also a setback for the people, who decided to use religion as a tool to divide humanity and use their own system to fill the vacuum.

Now, with Barack Obama in office and his plans for change to steer the economy clear of the doldrums and overhaul his healthcare and education systems, he still would need to find an alternative to his own brand of Capitalistic Society.  The laws of nature would never allow a mono-leithic society to rule the whole world.  Therefore, a second force and a second system have to emerge to keep the balance.  It is for us and our future generations to find out as to what that force is going to be.  The indications are quite clear that one of the religious forces would emerge as victorious at the end to replace the old communist systems.  The people who values morality as an integral part of the governance will tilt to one of the religions as an alternative that has a full system of socio political and economic governance.  Islam does seem to be a complete code of life and has an advantage over other religions in terms of its political clout and a financial system supporting the moral and political base.  If China, Russia, and some of the EU countries back one of the religions, then that is the solution and the alternative to the Capitalist system.  Islam along with some other religions is vying for that spot.  Islam is being radicalized by a segment that clearly understands the stakes at hand and is promoting their own agenda to get an upper hand within Islam so that if and when the opportunity arises, they would take control of the Islamic world. Islam does not yet have a single point of command as yet like that of the Catholics but the Shiaa sect of the Muslims would soon create one, as it seems from the new belt they have created that they can call a unified cell stretching from Iran and going all the way through the Middle East to North Africa and moving South to Asia.  While the Sunni Muslims are still vying for a brand of their own, they still lag behind their Shiaa brethren counterparts in creating a single point of command and control.  Current war with Hamas had given them a tremendous opportunity for fermenting one. Israel, on the other hand, knowingly or unknowingly has promoted the cause of the Shiaas and helped them emerge as a force to reckon with, which they have denied for the Sunni Muslims. Bush’s era has made the Shiaas the single most beneficiary of his policies, knowingly or unknowingly, he has created the lethal most gifts to the Shiaas on a silver platter that will haunt the US and its allies for the generations to come.

Coming back to the holy war of the Muslims, It has been very clearly mentioned of the circumstances under which Islam can condone one.  A holy war is permitted only when they are attacked and their existence is in question.  The focus of Islamic Jihad has never been an offensive weapon.  The focus of Islamic Jihad is also directed to the self ill conceptions and ill intents to purify ones mind and body.  As I had mentioned earlier, that certain segment of the Western World, who understands the need for an alternative to their Capitalistic Society, are trying their best to put these forces into test by pressuring them and setting up for the grounds for confrontations.  They are providing every opportunity to the Muslims to find a rightful cause for them to wage a holy war.  Current push by the Israelis into Gaza was nothing more than forcing the Muslims to unite and wage a holy war against them and their allies namely the West.  Understanding the opportunity, people vying for that spot, has given the call for a holy war and sooner or later, a full fledged war is expected.

“Fear” is a powerful tool and People and leaders do take advantage of this powerful tool to rule and manage their own people at the expense of the negative impacts it has on the population in general.   In our societies, the mothers use this technique to feed their unwilling children to eat or the fathers use it to discipline their children so that they become attentive in schools and attend classes but the harm it inflicts on their mind is inconceivable.  At times the lines are crossed.  The lingering impact it has on the psyche is irreparable.  The young minds become resilient to reasons and become conflict prone.  The senses of negativity make them imparvient to reasons and make them impulsive and as a result develop an extreme psyche that dwells between the two extremes.  Their mind becomes emotional.  These adults become prey to the Visionaries, I have defined earlier.  These impulsive minds are them framed to commit the acts of violence that spread fear among the population for a purpose.  They become committed and loyal to the cause.

The second factor that turns people into terrorism is for economic reasons.  Economically deprived mass would very easily be recruited by the religious operatives.  Religion is a platform, where the economically disadvantaged people can easily take refuge and feel relieved. They turn to God for changing their economic dire situations.  The near to free healthcare, free food and charity becomes their lively hood and those acts are all managed by the organized religious groups.  These acts of charity and kindness turn them to a loyal and cohesive force that would be ready to sacrifice their lives for a cause that had made the social disparity in the first place.  The cumulative anger and stored frustration is the breeding ground for the onlookers to make their move and this is what becomes a breeding ground for the potential terror network to get started.  In conclusion, I would say that we directly or indirectly contribute to the process of developing the psyche of a future extremist or a terrorist and the opportunists with a plan and agenda takes advantage of them.

We can not solve this problem anytime soon until the economic and social deprivation our stamped out from our intelligent designs and a more equitable social architectures are put in place.  To be honest, the current upheavals, no matter where it stems from, the root causes are more economic than religion and religion has found an agenda and a just cause to thrive on. If the economic conditions and social justices are brought to bear, religions would not have that opportunity any more to bank on.

Kind regards,

Rial

From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...>
Subject: Perfect Storm is coming to Bangladesh
To: cgmpservices@...
Date: Friday, January 30, 2009, 5:28 PM

Dear All,   You may wonder what kind of storm I am talking about.  It's  economical storm that Bangladesh never experienced before.  I am little bit worried that economists and present Minsters in Bangladesh are not paying much attention about this storm.  Well the problem is that if you do not know a Storm is coming, then you won't be prepared for it.  There will be a situation that we will start blame game, he or she didn't tell me, I didn't know, nobody even PM didn't say this.  Well then listen from me please.   My conservative estimate is that economical storm in the world will exist until 2012,  if you can ride on this storm, then you will survive, if you can't then good luck.  I like to provide few strategic outlines what to do in this perfect economical storm in Bangladesh.   1) Current Govt should recognize that a perfect storm is coming.  If USA could recognize this storm in 2006,  USA won't be in this position now.   2) Put resources in place so Govt can take care its people and feed them trough out the storm period.   3) Stop biased or favoritism in Bangladesh.  Once I am hungry,  I won't say I am AL or BNP,  all I will say give me food and job to survive.  So based on basis of human rights,  its current Govt duty to help people regardless his or her party affiliations.   4) Bangladesh Real Estate bubble will be burst within year and so, so Govt should be prepared with huge layoff in that sector as well as other sectors.  Most of the Real Estate bubble in Bangladesh were created by NRBs and corrupted money in Bangladesh.  NRBs are real squeeze in financial aspect and won't be able to continue support the sky rocket price of land and apartments in Bangladesh.   5) Pharmaceuticals is the only sector which is recession proved in Bangladesh.  I have asked BNP Govt in 2005 to modernize this sector, CTG in 2007 and I am asking AL Govt in 2009 to pay attention and use NRBs expertise to develop this sector.  This is the only sector that you have no choice but to bring experts NRBs in Bangladesh to develop this sector for future growth.   6) NRBs and people in Bangladesh should lower their life style to ride on this storm.  Excessive waste will bring up other people's misery.   God Bless Bangladesh and help her 150 Million poor people in this coming perfect Storm.   Note:  My advise is not to direct any individuals or parties or NRBs, but to reach out to them and what we can do for the people during this bad economical  times.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), USA Director, Political and Economical Development in Bangladesh Change Bangladesh organization, USA www.changebanglades h.org --- On Tue, 1/20/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> wrote: From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> Subject: [khabor.com] Why USA won't able to get out of this financial mess To: cgmpservices@... Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2009, 12:41 PM Dear All,   I think and believe that we in USA are concern like any others about financial impact in USA and rest of the world and where this will lead us in the next 8 years.  I congratulate President Obama for taking the USA leadership but I am cautious like others even though I have campaign for Obama among Bangladeshi Community in USA.   Let's see the scenario why USA is in this position which is very different than 1930's and what steps should be taken for the incremental improvement.   Reasons for this mess   1) More than $20T, start with Trillion dollars of investors money has been lost in the last 12 months including personal 401K money. So the people confidence in companies is lower than ever.   2) More than 500,000 jobs have been cut per month by companies in USA, if it's continue then at the end of 2009 total 6 million jobs will be lost.  Adding 2 million jobs already have been lost in the last 24 months.  This is creating a nightmare for the consumers to spend  discretionary money.   3) Two third of the economy are depended on consumer spending,  when consumer stopped buying like before,  companies can not make money, their stocks goes down and companies start laying off to make baseline profit for the company.  This is called a cycle of uncertainty.   4) Biggest problem is that USA consumers has borrowed two times of their house worth for the last 5 years.  For example, if a house price is $100K in 1999, it went up to $300K in 2006, so extra $200K was borrowed from foreign countries to mortgage people's houses in USA.  Therefore, deficit went over the roof.  If this is continued,  few wealthy countries might not be interested to invest in USA like before because losing confidence into USA economy and their investment returns.   5) Once people lost jobs, they can not afford to pay high mortgage which they could not afford at the first place.  US Govt can not pay everybody extra interest for the mortgage they owe to banks.  This might come over $10T, start with Trillion.   6) Once companies make less money, the Govt tax collection also becomes low.  So more deficit for USA.  Intake is higher than delivery.   7) USA does not have leadership of many technologies like before, so USA has more competitors than before i.e. China and India.   8) More liability for baby boomers in years ahead, means need more money to take care her citizens like Social Security and Medicare.   9) Iraq war alone costs USA close to $1T and need another $1.2T to take care veterans health and financial liabilities.   10) Dollar might go down compare to others currency once foreign countries start withdraw their investment or stopped new investment in USA, i.e.  stop buying USA Bond.   Options to way of of this mess:   So what do USA have now?  President Obama's sweet talks might not bring much fruits unless he can show leadership and put new policies in place very quickly, so situation does not get out of control.  I personally think that President Obama should do the following for the love of this country.   1)  President Obama should provide executive order to cut military budget of $465B to only $50B.  Bring all military installation back home unless foreign countries provide the bill.   2) Provide middle class incentives as soon as possible.   3) Stop giving big money to banks but give direct loan to consumers from Govt Treasure.  I know it does not sound Capitalist,  but US Govt does not have any other option.  For example,  If I know that this consumer will not able to pay back my money,  I won't make loan to him even I get pressured from Govt unless Govt takes all the toxic assets.  Same situation, Banks are not lending even they got US Govt money.  Banks know consumers do not have enough money or may lose job soon whichever is first.   4) Provide stimulate money if there is any Corrective and Preventive Action (CAPA) in place for the new projects which will create jobs.   I hope and pray US gets out of this mess but I am very pessimistic now based on the scenario I have presented you here, unless miracle happens in USA.   God bless USA and her people.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA www.amreteckpharma. com

Aditya Anik er boi

Ebarer Boi melay

 Riddho Krishnochurha Tomake =  Shrabon

( Kobita)

 Chhondaa O Amader Mukti Jhuddho =   Somoy

( Novel )

 Prottasha Ekhon Ridoy er Kachhe=     Shikorr

(Novel)

 Neel Kothorir Vut  ( Voutik )         =         Shikorr

 Sheemana Barie Dao   =      Deepti

( kobita )

 Modhupur Adventure =     Shuchipotro

 ( Adventure )

 Chhonno chhara Chorha = Shoily

 ( Chorrha )

Bad economy forcing immigrants to reconsider U.S.

By Thelma Gutierrez and Wayne Drash
CNN

LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) -- Pedro Pablo slowly folds up his American flag blanket and stuffs it in his duffel bag. With it goes his American dream.

Pedro Pablo, an illegal immigrant from Guatemala, headed home recently due to the bad U.S. economy.

1 of 3

"I left my family and lost four years with them. I will ask them to forgive me," he said.

Pablo is an illegal immigrant from Guatemala who came to the United States to support his wife and five sons back home. When he arrived, construction jobs were plentiful. Over the last year, he says, he's worked three days.

He recently boarded a bus with a one-way ticket home, paid for by the Guatemalan consulate in Los Angeles. "I thought I could get ahead here. I regret coming." Watch day laborers head home »

Across the United States, tens of thousands of immigrants -- those here legally and illegally -- are facing a similar dilemma: Do they continue to search for jobs in a struggling U.S. economy or return home to an even bleaker economic situation?

"Things are very dire, and I think it's impacting those at the very bottom even more so," said Abel Valenzuela, a professor at the University of California-Los Angeles who has spent years studying day laborers.

"Day laborers are being really, really impacted."

America's economic boom during the 1990s and 2000s created a high demand of day workers needed for anything from building homes to picking fruit and from working at slaughterhouses to working as nannies. Many of those jobs have since evaporated, resulting in more and more people -- immigrants and native-born Americans -- flooding day labor job sites and standing on street corners in search of any type of work they can get.

"All of them are competing for the few jobs being dispatched," Valenzuela said.

Immigration experts say it's not yet clear how large an immigration exodus of Latin Americans is under way. But they say anecdotal evidence suggests day laborers, like Pablo, have begun packing -- a result of the economy and tougher immigration enforcement.

For some immigrants, the experts say, the reasons for toughing out the U.S. economic depression outweigh the reasons for leaving, including:
• One or two days of work per month at $8 an hour is often better than what they can make back home;
• Tougher border enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border has made it harder for them to return once they leave;
• Smuggling costs to get into the United States from Mexico have skyrocketed from about $1,500 three years ago to about $6,000 today.

"I'm not convinced it's a tidal wave of exodus," Valenzuela said. "There really is a fear mentality [of leaving], and as a result many immigrants are buckling down -- that is they're hiding or living in the shadows of our law. So they think more than twice about whether or not they want to go back to their country of origin, because they know very well that it's going to be extremely difficult and very expensive to come back if they want to pursue their dream."

Steven Camarota with the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington-based think tank that seeks a "pro-immigrant, low-immigration vision," said Census data indicate that more than 1 million illegal immigrants left last year, a departure that began even before the nation's economy took a turn for the worse toward the end of the year.

He said better border enforcement and workplace raids on illegal immigrants "let people know that the immigration law was back in business."

With illegal immigrants returning home, he said, "It's certainly good for two groups: taxpayers and less educated natives."

The lack of work in the United States has had a trickle down effect in the immigrants' countries of origin. The money sent back home by Mexican immigrants in 2008 fell for the first time since record-keeping began 13 years ago. Watch lack of remittances has "real large economic implications" »

The remittances dipped 3.6 percent, from $26 billion in 2007 to $25 billion, according to Mexico's central bank. Remittances are Mexico's second-largest source of foreign income, behind only oil. Other Latin American countries also have seen money sent from immigrants in the United States slow.

Erik Camayd-Freixas, a professor at Florida International University who has served as an immigration court interpreter for two decades, recently traveled to Guatemala, where he saw the effects of less money being sent home by immigrants.

"Everybody was talking about it," he said. "The local economies are severely impacted and the unemployment is rampant."

He said scores of people deported from the United States are trying to find any type of job in Guatemala. "They've been there six months and they have no work," Camayd-Freixas said.

That's why he said he believes most immigrants already in the United States are willing to stick it out, despite the hard-scrabble times in America.

"The truth of the matter is, despite our 7.6 percent unemployment, most Americans are not going to do those jobs that migrant workers do," Camayd-Freixas said. "They're certainly not going to pick tomatoes, grapefruits and oranges."

Camarota disagrees. He said Americans most likely to compete for day labor jobs -- those with a high school degree or less -- are currently unemployed at an astounding rate of about 15 percent. "It's very hard to argue that we're desperately short of unskilled workers," he said.

Geronimo Salguero is the director of a day labor site in Los Angeles. He says employment for day laborers has dipped 75 percent over the last year. He said on any given day three years ago, his center found work for nearly 50 percent of the people who gathered there. Now, that figure is about 5 percent of the 250 men who huddle daily searching for work.

A study issued in January by the Pew Hispanic Center found that nearly three of four Latinos surveyed said their personal finances were in fair or poor shape, compared to 61 percent of the general U.S. population. Among Hispanic immigrants who sent remittances home over the last two years, about 70 percent said they sent less in 2008 than in 2007.

Salguero said to help offset the hard times, immigrants are crowding about 20 men into apartments. He's now working with the Guatemalan consulate. Once a week, he said, the consulate purchases a bus ticket for an immigrant to go home.

"They are completely desperate," he said. "Each day, I have workers coming into the office and say, 'Geronimo, help me. I want to go back to my country.' "

Pablo was one of those men. He had lived in a one-bedroom apartment with seven other men. His "bedroom" was a corner of the living room where he kept his blanket, duffel bag and picture of his family.

"I can't make it here," he said. "If I have to suffer, it's better to suffer in Guatemala with my family."

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From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...>
Subject: Re: [Dahuk]: Nominated Zillur as President is a wrong choice
To: cgmpservices@...
Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2009, 8:54 AM

It's understood and I believe that President should be with few activities/workload to help Bangladesh,  not to keep him as Statue.  There is no time to be statue in Bangladesh if you take Govt position.  You should work for the people and for the county.  President should have responsibilities and these responsibilities only be performed when he can move from one place to another place quickly without any help or without any Oxygen Tank.   This might sound harsh but this is the reality,  we don't have luxury to sit idle if you take Govt position.  I still hope and pray for AL good judgment and leadership if AL really wants to help Bangladesh for better future.  I hope that someone in AL leadership is listening.   I do appreciate AL's strong statement and taking things strongly against political hate crime which is still happening in Bangladesh.  I urge them to take concrete steps to stop the political hate cirme in Bangladesh.   I personally believe that AL will do better if they stop paying their grassroots and political personnel for their work and pay more attention for the people who voted them in power with mandate.  I hope that AL leadership is listening my suggestion to make Bangladesh a developed country.   God helps Bangladesh to have better future.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA Director, Political and Development in Bangladesh Change Bangladesh Organization, USA " An Organization for Better Bangladesh" www.changebangladesh.org --- On Tue, 1/6/09, Salahuddin Ayubi <s_ayubi786@...> wrote: From: Salahuddin Ayubi <s_ayubi786@...> Subject: Re: [Dahuk]: Nominated Zillur as President is a wrong choice To: cgmpservices@..., dahuk@yahoogroups.com Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2009, 3:03 AM Our president is thuto jaggannath. It does not really matter whom you make president.  Even a chimpanzee will serve the post roight.                              Ayubi --- On Sat, 1/3/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> wrote: From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> Subject: [Dahuk]: Nominated Zillur as President is a wrong choice To: cgmpservices@... Date: Saturday, January 3, 2009, 10:41 PM Choosing Zillur as President is a wrong direction Even though Hasina wants to pay her AL leaders for their help on her bad times but choosing Zillur is a wrong one. Bangladesh is a country where we need strong face to visit various countries to bring more help for Bangladesh where Hasina does not go.   He is a good guy no question about it but Bangladesh needs people with international experiences and strong person who can move quickly to one place to another place. He might need oxygen tank next few months who knows. I hope and pray for his health and he should take rest from politics.   Zillur is a very bad choice where we need some one to move Bangladesh forward.  I still hope that Hssina will rethink about his nomination choice for the Presient of Bangladesh which will be good for AL and Bangladesh as far as development is concern.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA www.amreteckpharma. com

I have been pushing and asking our Bnagladesh policymakers for the last 5 weeks to put CBd's proposal and Strategies in place to survive in this upcoming financial nightmare in Bangladesh. 

Our current Govt just acknowledged CBd, USA advice.  I wish they would take CBd, USA advice earlier with strong enthusiasm and importance. 

CBd welcomes Bangladesh policymakers gesture and acknowledgment.

Note:  CBd is not against either AL or BNP,  CBd is a pro Bangladesh Organization based in USA.  CBd will support anybody or parties as long they work to help the people of Bangladesh and work on making their future better.  CBd helps Bangladesh previous and new Govts with new strategic policy advice and other development works in Bangladesh.

Regards,

M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), USA

Director, Political and Economical Development in Bangladesh

Change Bangladesh Organization (CBd), USA

www.changebangladesh.org

Policymakers certain recession will hit economy next fiscal

The government’s policymakers are now certain that the global recession is going to hit the country’s economy - possibly in the next fiscal year, if not this fiscal year, reports UNB.
They were, however, not yet certain to what extent the recession could affect the so far satisfying performance of the economy as compared to other countries in South Asia.
Meanwhile, a high-level committee is in the offing early next month to assess the possible setback and suggest remedial measures.
Prime Minister’s Economic Affairs Adviser Dr Mashiur Rahman told reporters of the obvious impact today (Thursday), emerging out of a meeting between Finance Minister AMA Muhith and visiting IMF director for Asia Pacific Department Anoop Singh at the Finance Ministry.
He accompanied the Minister along with Finance secretary Dr Muhammad Tareque during the discussion on the possible impact of global recession on the country’s economy. IMF resident representative Jonathon C Dunn was also present.
“The recession has not yet affected our economy, but it’ll,” Dr Mashiur said, after reviewing overall situation of the recession. “Nobody can say till now to what extent the impact will be.”
He said the government has kept a close watch on the situation, particularly on the impact of remittance, and has been reviewing the situation from time to time.
The PM’s economic adviser said the government is considering to establish a committee with government and civil society representation while the body would undertake possible measures through consultation.
Earlier, the Finance Minister had told reporters that the first meeting of the proposed committee would be held early next month (March).
Replying to a question, Dr Mashiur said that he has got some responsibilities to oversee economic issues while he has a catalytic role to expedite proper implementation of the measures to be taken by the government.
What he does, he said, is to discuss the issues like the possible impact of the recession with the Finance Minister and the Planning Minister. Dr Mashiur added that he has no difference of opinion or problem working with them as they were his senior colleagues in the past.
“How we can implement the pre-election pledges are being decided through discussion among us,” said the PM’s adviser.
Finance Minister AMA Muhith said the economic condition of the country remained good so far and there is nothing to be worried about the impact during the current fiscal year. “We’ll have to think about the next fiscal year,” he said.
Talking to reporters after the meeting, IMF director Anoop Singh said Bangladesh remained well-protected with reasonably good economic indicators while most of the economies in the world have been affected by the recession.
He agreed with the policymakers here that the economy is unlikely to be affected by the recession in the current fiscal year. The country’s readymade garment export remained well-positioned compared to its competitors due to lower-end products, Singh said.
He added that the government was also deeply considering about the RMG industry.

--- On Sun, 2/8/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> wrote:

From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...>
Subject: Financial and Strategic Warning to Current Govt in Bangladesh
To: cgmpservices@...
Date: Sunday, February 8, 2009, 7:34 PM

I am so much worried about few of Moran Ministers in Bangladesh that they may sink the ship in Bangladesh while they are in driver seats.  The reason of my frustration is that they are stoning wrong birds to accomplish people needs.  Now I am hearing the following statements:   1) Exports start seeing recession fallout: Muhith,  This is too late realization per MM Chowdhury   2) Signing Transit Agreement with India is not ripe time yet.  Every country is building bunkers for their survival, nobody will give you more, so signing with them won't help you a penny.   3) South Asian Security Force.  A recipe for a disaster unless Bangladesh is Iraq or Afghanistan situation.  US canceled TIFA since they are in big hole in financial situation.   4) Trail of Razakars should be second priority under the current financial condition of Bangladesh.  This will take off our real focus of emergency needs in Bangladesh.   5) Law and Order is deteriorating - Taj.  This is the benchmark for any Govt success.   6) Mr. Zillur as a President is a wrong choice in wrong time.  Bnagladesh needs a dynamic, strong, visionary person to lead Bangladesh in this tough time.  No time to bring oxygen tanks and carry all places.   The bottom line is that why either AL or BNP parties does not have qualified people to run Bangladesh and establish the priorities that they need to focus.  I am more than convinced now that Current Govt needs to bring expertise and experiences NRBs to develop few strategic plan and focus which will help Bangladesh next 3-4 years.   I hope that someone in AL Govt listening my call.  Even they do not listen to me,  I have nothing to loose but I believe that I should do for Bangladesh as much as possible with my power and limitation.   God Bless Bangladesh and help poor people in this coming financial storm.    Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA www.changebangladesh.org --- On Sun, 2/1/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> wrote: From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> Subject: Bangladesh Needs Local Stimulate Package To: cgmpservices@... Date: Sunday, February 1, 2009, 9:25 PM The following are real strategies which will help Bangladesh to ride over this upcoming financial turmoil:   1) Provide stimulate package to ICT companies and provide all Govt ICT projects to locals to make digital Bangladesh.  If some one in current Govt knows what digital means to them.  Use local programmers and networking engineers to employ as much as possible.  This will create enough works to keep ICT going with creating more jobs.   2) Provide enough finance to build the Pharmaceuticals park at Munshigonj.  20% works was done, complete this projects which will create huge jobs for now.   3) Since overseas market is bad,  few of NRBs might be interested to come back Bangladesh to develop this country with their expertis and experiences.  Govt needs to make sure to provide tax free income during their stay in Bangladesh like Middle Eastern Countires.  Provide enough facilities and security to perform their work during living in Bangladesh.   4) If there is less corruption in Bangladesh,  NRBs might be interested to invest in Bangladesh to take opportunity during this financial turmoil.   5) Bangladesh Govt needs to adopt new policy to attract NRBs in Bangladesh.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA www.changebangladesh.org --- On Fri, 1/30/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> wrote: From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> Subject: Perfect Storm is coming to Bangladesh To: cgmpservices@... Date: Friday, January 30, 2009, 5:28 PM Dear All,   You may wonder what kind of storm I am talking about.  It's  economical storm that Bangladesh never experienced before.  I am little bit worried that economists and present Minsters in Bangladesh are not paying much attention about this storm.  Well the problem is that if you do not know a Storm is coming, then you won't be prepared for it.  There will be a situation that we will start blame game, he or she didn't tell me, I didn't know, nobody even PM didn't say this.  Well then listen from me please.   My conservative estimate is that economical storm in the world will exist until 2012,  if you can ride on this storm, then you will survive, if you can't then good luck.  I like to provide few strategic outlines what to do in this perfect economical storm in Bangladesh.   1) Current Govt should recognize that a perfect storm is coming.  If USA could recognize this storm in 2006,  USA won't be in this position now.   2) Put resources in place so Govt can take care its people and feed them trough out the storm period.   3) Stop biased or favoritism in Bangladesh.  Once I am hungry,  I won't say I am AL or BNP,  all I will say give me food and job to survive.  So based on basis of human rights,  its current Govt duty to help people regardless his or her party affiliations.   4) Bangladesh Real Estate bubble will be burst within year and so, so Govt should be prepared with huge layoff in that sector as well as other sectors.  Most of the Real Estate bubble in Bangladesh were created by NRBs and corrupted money in Bangladesh.  NRBs are real squeeze in financial aspect and won't be able to continue support the sky rocket price of land and apartments in Bangladesh.   5) Pharmaceuticals is the only sector which is recession proved in Bangladesh.  I have asked BNP Govt in 2005 to modernize this sector, CTG in 2007 and I am asking AL Govt in 2009 to pay attention and use NRBs expertise to develop this sector.  This is the only sector that you have no choice but to bring experts NRBs in Bangladesh to develop this sector for future growth.   6) NRBs and people in Bangladesh should lower their life style to ride on this storm.  Excessive waste will bring up other people's misery.   God Bless Bangladesh and help her 150 Million poor people in this coming perfect Storm.   Note:  My advise is not to direct any individuals or parties or NRBs, but to reach out to them and what we can do for the people during this bad economical  times.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), USA Director, Political and Economical Development in Bangladesh Change Bangladesh organization, USA www.changebanglades h.org --- On Tue, 1/20/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> wrote: From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@...> Subject: [khabor.com] Why USA won't able to get out of this financial mess To: cgmpservices@... Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2009, 12:41 PM Dear All,   I think and believe that we in USA are concern like any others about financial impact in USA and rest of the world and where this will lead us in the next 8 years.  I congratulate President Obama for taking the USA leadership but I am cautious like others even though I have campaign for Obama among Bangladeshi Community in USA.   Let's see the scenario why USA is in this position which is very different than 1930's and what steps should be taken for the incremental improvement.   Reasons for this mess   1) More than $20T, start with Trillion dollars of investors money has been lost in the last 12 months including personal 401K money. So the people confidence in companies is lower than ever.   2) More than 500,000 jobs have been cut per month by companies in USA, if it's continue then at the end of 2009 total 6 million jobs will be lost.  Adding 2 million jobs already have been lost in the last 24 months.  This is creating a nightmare for the consumers to spend  discretionary money.   3) Two third of the economy are depended on consumer spending,  when consumer stopped buying like before,  companies can not make money, their stocks goes down and companies start laying off to make baseline profit for the company.  This is called a cycle of uncertainty.   4) Biggest problem is that USA consumers has borrowed two times of their house worth for the last 5 years.  For example, if a house price is $100K in 1999, it went up to $300K in 2006, so extra $200K was borrowed from foreign countries to mortgage people's houses in USA.  Therefore, deficit went over the roof.  If this is continued,  few wealthy countries might not be interested to invest in USA like before because losing confidence into USA economy and their investment returns.   5) Once people lost jobs, they can not afford to pay high mortgage which they could not afford at the first place.  US Govt can not pay everybody extra interest for the mortgage they owe to banks.  This might come over $10T, start with Trillion.   6) Once companies make less money, the Govt tax collection also becomes low.  So more deficit for USA.  Intake is higher than delivery.   7) USA does not have leadership of many technologies like before, so USA has more competitors than before i.e. China and India.   8) More liability for baby boomers in years ahead, means need more money to take care her citizens like Social Security and Medicare.   9) Iraq war alone costs USA close to $1T and need another $1.2T to take care veterans health and financial liabilities.   10) Dollar might go down compare to others currency once foreign countries start withdraw their investment or stopped new investment in USA, i.e.  stop buying USA Bond.   Options to way of of this mess:   So what do USA have now?  President Obama's sweet talks might not bring much fruits unless he can show leadership and put new policies in place very quickly, so situation does not get out of control.  I personally think that President Obama should do the following for the love of this country.   1)  President Obama should provide executive order to cut military budget of $465B to only $50B.  Bring all military installation back home unless foreign countries provide the bill.   2) Provide middle class incentives as soon as possible.   3) Stop giving big money to banks but give direct loan to consumers from Govt Treasure.  I know it does not sound Capitalist,  but US Govt does not have any other option.  For example,  If I know that this consumer will not able to pay back my money,  I won't make loan to him even I get pressured from Govt unless Govt takes all the toxic assets.  Same situation, Banks are not lending even they got US Govt money.  Banks know consumers do not have enough money or may lose job soon whichever is first.   4) Provide stimulate money if there is any Corrective and Preventive Action (CAPA) in place for the new projects which will create jobs.   I hope and pray US gets out of this mess but I am very pessimistic now based on the scenario I have presented you here, unless miracle happens in USA.   God bless USA and her people.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA www.amreteckpharma. com